Luck is not strategy: Israel should judge all attacks by intent and respond accordingly – comment

Israel cannot—must not—rely on miracles.

That is one of the lessons of October 7. More precisely, it is one of the lessons of two decades of experience before October 7, a lesson—sadly—not heeded.

For years, Hamas fired rockets from Gaza into Israel. And for years, Israel generally only responded when the rockets caused a casualty. If a rocket was fired but fell into a vacant field or hit a house or playground empty at the time, Israel’s response was muted.

Forcefully responding to only “successful” attacks proved to be a tragic error. If Israel, going back to the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, had responded to each rocket attack that intended to kill and maim as one that indeed did kill and maim, then it would have taken much more forceful action against Hamas earlier, perhaps preventing it from metastasizing to the monstrous proportions that allowed it to carry out the October 7 attack.

The country needs to learn. And how it reacts to Thursday night’s explosion of three buses in the Tel Aviv area—and the discovery and detonation of bombs on two other buses nearby —will test whether it has.

After hearing the news late Thursday night of the bus explosions, many Israelis went to bed thankful for this latest “miracle:” that the bombs—intended, apparently, to detonate simultaneously at 9 a.m. on Friday morning, during peak hours —instead exploded at 9 p.m. 

Israel cannot sign in relief

But the country can’t depend on miracles.

Israel cannot simply wipe its brow now, sigh in relief of a bullet dodged, and just move on. This was an attack intended to cause massive—massive—casualties, and it must be treated as such.

What does that mean? It means that intensive fighting against the terrorist infrastructure in Judea and Samaria needs to continue unabated, and even be stepped up. 

It also means that if this attack is traced back to Iran, which has actively been trying to turn Judea and Samaria into its latest base from which to attack the Jewish state, then Iran needs to be held responsible and pay a price. 

National Unity Party head Benny Gantz was right when he said in a post on X following the bombings that this incident “should be treated like a mega-attack.”

“We must look at the result—not at the intent,” he wrote. “It is forbidden to repeat the mistake of the attack that was prevented at Megiddo.”

Gantz was referring to March 2023 when another major attack was luckily averted. A powerful IED brought into Israell by a terrorist from Lebanon exploded near the Megiddo Junction, seriously wounding a 21-year old man and damaging a passing vehicle. “Miraculously,” there was not much greater carnage, and — as a result —  Israel largely turned a blind eye and did not respond decisively against Hezbollah, believed to be behind the attack. 

“An attempt to murder dozens of Israelis on this difficult day [the day when Hamas handed flour coffins over to Isarel] must be met not only with tactical action, but rather by directly targeting the planners and those funding them, and using powerful tools against the terrorists’ strongholds themselves” Gantz wrote. 

He continued: “We must exact a heavy price that the terrorist organizations will not forget.”

Over the past 16 months, Hamas, Hezbollah and even Iran have  been weakened considerably. Israel must make it clear that the rules have changed. Where once it may have been willing, in Joe Biden’s phrase, to “take the win” and just be happy no one was killed in a terrorist attack, now, in Trump’s words, it should make clear there will be “hell to pay” for every attempted attack.

Israel’s enemies—first and foremost, Iran—are watching. Jerusalem’s reaction cannot be just more of how it reacted to failed attacks in the past. It needs to treat this attack as if it “succeeded” and respond accordingly against the perpetrators as well as those who sent them. 

This, too, is one of October 7’s lessons.