- 00:00WELCOME BACK. AS WE CONSIDER THIS LEAK THAT TOOK PLACE THIS WEEK AND, HOW DO YOU EXPECT THAT CHANGES ISRAEL ‘ S GO FORWARD PLAN AS WE ARE STILL AWAITING THEIR RESPONSE TO AN ATTEMPT — ATTEMPTED STRIKE ON ISRAEL WITH HUNDREDS OF MISSILES THAT HAPPEN ALMOST THREE WEEKS AGO? > > I ‘ M NOT SURPRISED AT THE FACT THAT ISRAEL ‘ S RESPONSE WAS NOT IMMEDIATE. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF FACTORS AT PLAY, INCLUDING TRYING TO MAXIMIZE HOW MUCH YOU CAN CATCH THE ENEMY OFF GUARD IN ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. SO IT SEEMS THAT THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, THIS LEAK. THE ADMINISTRATION IS CLEARLY ACKNOWLEDGING THAT IT HAPPENED, WHICH ALSO MAKES ME THINK THAT THERE MAY BE SOME EFFORT TO ENSURE THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS IS SUFFICIENTLY DIFFERENT THAN WHATEVER INFORMATION WAS LEAKED. JOE: THE DOCUMENTS HAD BEEN PREPARED BY THE NATIONAL GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY AND ARE ESSENTIALLY INTERPRETATIONS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE, WE ‘ VE ALREADY HER REPORTING THAT ISRAEL WILL NOT TARGET OIL INSTALLATIONS OR IRAN ‘ S NUCLEAR SYSTEMS. ISN ‘ T THE CAT OUT OF THE BAG ALREADY ON WHAT ISRAEL IS DOING? HOW MUCH DOES THIS CHANGE? > > HARD TO KNOW. IT ‘ S NOT GOOD FOR ANY INFORMATION TO BE OUT IN PUBLIC THAT IS HIGHLY SECRET AND COMPARTMENTALIZED INFORMATION. THE METHODS THAT ISRAEL USES, WHO THEY ARE GOING AFTER IN WHICH WAYS, THINK THE CAT IS NOT OUT OF THE BAG ON THAT AT ALL. IS STILL QUITE AND CLEAR. WE JUST KNOW THINGS THEY ARE NOT GOING TO DO, WE DON ‘ T KNOW WHAT THEY WILL DO. KAILEY: I WONDER HOW TIMING IS INFLUENCED BY THE FACT THAT ANTONY BLINKEN IS ON A PLANE BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE 11TH TIME SINCE OCTOBER 7 OF LAST YEAR. WHAT ROLE DOES HE PLAY, NOT JUST POTENTIALLY IN THE DETERMINATION ISRAEL IS MAKING BUT ALSO HOW THE CONFLICT IN THE REGION MOVES FORWARD? HE HAS WALKED AWAY EMPTY-HANDED MANY TIMES BEFORE. > > PERHAPS HE HAS WALKED AWAY WITHOUT GETTING EVERYTHING THE UNITED STATES WANTS ARE THE PUBLIC STATEMENT ‘ S OR MOVEMENT. I WOULD NOT CHARACTERIZE THAT AS EMPTY-HANDED, THOUGH. WE CAN ‘ T SEE WHAT THINGS HIS CONVERSATIONS HAVE PREVENTED OR WHAT HAS TAKEN DIFFERENT ROUTES. I THINK HIS REPEATED VISITS THERE, HIS CONVERSATIONS THAT ARE PROBABLY TOUGH AND WAYS YOU CAN HAVE CONVERSATIONS IN PRIVATE ARE WAYS TO MAKE GAINS AND THE U.S. HAS MADE CLEAR WANTS TO CC OPPORTUNITIES IT SEES FROM THE KILLING OFSINWAR AND MOVING TOWARD GETTING THAT CEASE-FIRE IN GAZA AS A WAY TO GET HOSTAGES OUT, GET IN HUMANITARIAN AID TO SO MANY AND HAVE STEPS FORWARD THAT CAN DE-ESCALATE THE RISK FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. JOE: THE CONVENTION IN WASHINGTON IS THAT NOTHING HAPPENS UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION BECAUSE THE NETANYAHU GOVERNMENT DOES NOT KNOW WHOM IT WOULD BE DEALING WITH. THE LEADER OF HAMAS WAS JUST KILLED LAST WEEK AND NO ONE IS SPEAKING FOR THAT GROUP, EITHER. > > I ‘ M NOT SURE WHAT THE SILENCE FROM HAMAS MEANS, THAT THEY DON ‘ T ALREADY HAVE A SUCCESSION PLAN IN PLACE. SINWAR WAS A BRILLIANT STRATEGIST. I BELIEVE HE LEFT LIKELY PLANS FOR SUCCESSION THERE. I THINK THERE ARE ANY NUMBER OF THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THE ELECTION. THINGS FOR THE BETTER AND FOR THE WORSE. FOR PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU, HEAT MAY BE EAGER TO SEE WHO PREVAILS HERE IN THE U.S., BUT HE ALSO IS TRYING TO MAINTAIN HIS OWN POLITICAL POSITION, AND THAT IS AFFECTED BY ACTIONS HE TAKES OR DOESN ‘ T TAKE IN HIS OWN COUNTRY. KAILEY: IT STRIKES ME THAT WE ARE CONSIDERING ISRAEL ‘ S FIGHT WITH HIM I STILL AN ACTIVE FRONT IN THE BORDER WITH LEBANON AS WELL. DO ALL OF THESE THINGS NEED TO HAPPEN SIMULTANEOUSLY IF THEY ARE TO HAPPEN AT ALL? > > I THINK IT IS UNLIKELY THAT HAPPEN SIMULTANEOUSLY. THEY ARE INTERLINKED, AND FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO ME THAT GETTING TO A CEASE-FIRE IN GAZA IS THE FIRST STEP THAT CAN THEN HELP TO DE-ESCALATE THE SITUATION IN LEBANON, THAT CAN WORK TO SHOW IRAN HOW MUCH REGIONAL ACTORS ARE TOGETHER AND ALLIED AGAINST BUT THEY ‘ RE TRYING TO DO AS OPPOSED TO FOUR. THOSE THINGS REQUIRE A WAY FORWARD FOR PALESTINIANS AS WELL. THEY ‘ VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT A RETURN TO ENFORCING, IF IT WAS EVER ENFORCED, YOU RESOLUTION 1701 FROM 2006 TO MOVE HEZBOLLAH ON NORTH OF THE RIVER AND WOULD ALSO GET ISRAEL OUT OF LEBANON. JOE: THE ADVANCED MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM THAT WE TALKED ABOUT LAST WEEK HAS BEEN DEPLOYED TODAY. IT MAKES YOU WONDER, CONSIDERING THE PUSH AND PULL WE HAVE SEEN WITH UKRAINE, FOR INSTANCE, HAVE WE GIVEN EVERYTHING TO ISRAEL THAT IT HAS ASKED FOR? > > THE MISSILE-DEFENSE SYSTEM IS THERE TO ENSURE ISRAEL ‘ S ABILITY TO DEFEND ITSELF AND TO DEFEND U.S. INTERESTS AT THE SAME TIME. SO THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH OUR COMMITMENT TO ISSUE AND THE JOB THE U.S. HAS TO MAXIMIZE SECURITY. JOE: WHETHER IT ‘ S A DEFENSIVE OUR OFFENSE OF POSTURE, WE HAVE CHECKED OFF EVERY PUNCH LIST ISRAEL HAS GIVEN US, WHEN IT COMES TO MILITARY HARDWARE AND SUPPORT MILITARILY. > > I THINK THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS MAXIMIZED WHAT IT IS ABLE TO DO WITH RESPECT TO ISRAEL. HAVING DEALT WITH ISRAELIS IN THE PAST OVER NEGOTIATIONS THEY WANT OR SEEK FROM THE UNITED STATES, I WOULD BE SKEPTICAL THAT THEY WOULD SAY THEY HAVE 100% OF WHAT THEY WANT AND NEED.
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