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As summer ends and winter approaches, market players are starting to signal further concern over diesel. Nymex diesel futures went on yet another tear this week and now hover around $2.35 per gallon, up more than 13% since April. Energy Intelligence’s downstream model shows diesel cracks have rocketed to over $31 per barrel on the US Gulf Coast and almost $26/bbl in Northwest Europe. The crunch has sent traders scrambling to secure diesel supplies for Europe, with some turning to unconventional and costly strategies to get it there. Their willingness to absorb additional costs underlines just how tight the market might get. Diesel has been supporting the entire petroleum complex for much of the year, market watchers say. The causes are many, ranging from sanctions and embargoes on petroleum from Russia, Iran and Venezuela to restricted Opec-plus flows to ongoing and intensifying attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Experts say limited Opec-plus volumes for much of this year, combined with a general lack of availability of Russia and Venezuelan barrels, means refiners are processing a lighter feedstock that does not yield as much diesel as other grades would, even as many facilities run at full tilt. Opec-plus is bringing heavier barrels back to the market, but at a time when refiners are beginning seasonal maintenance. Meanwhile, overall downstream capacity is shrinking this year as rationalizations outpace new additions, according to analysts at RBN Energy. The market is approaching winter with thin inventories of distillate fuel oils like diesel; in many regions, stocks remain well below both their seasonal norms and five-year averages despite recent builds. US refiners have warned that, even running flat out, the global downstream will struggle to build up much of an inventory cushion during the third and fourth quarters.