Medicaid, taxes and climate change, oh my!

Medicaid has gotten perhaps the most attention. Republicans want the Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid, to eliminate at least $880 billion in spending. It was mathematically impossible to reach that number without somehow fiddling with Medicaid, which makes up 93 percent of expected non-Medicare spending under the committee’s watch over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

“We acknowledge that we must reform Medicaid so that it is a strong and long-lasting program for years to come,” a dozen Republicans led by Rep. David G. Valadao (R-California) wrote in a letter last month. “However, we cannot and will not support a final reconciliation bill that includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.”

The latest plan would eliminate rules implemented during the Biden administration designed to make it easier for people to apply for Medicaid. It also would expand work requirements to 80 hours a month and require check-ins more often to verify eligibility. Republicans say the moves will reduce the number of undocumented immigrants and other ineligible users from improperly accessing benefits.

“This bill refocuses Medicaid on mothers, children, people with disabilities, and the elderly — not illegal immigrants and capable adults who choose not to work,” Energy Committee Chairman Brett Guthrie (R-Kentucky) said in a statement. “This reconciliation is a win for Americans in every part of the country, and it’s a shame Democrats are intentionally reflexively opposing commonsense policies to strengthen the program.”

But repealing Biden-era rules will make it harder for people who are legally eligible to receive Medicaid benefits to get what they are entitled to, said Chiquita Brooks-LaSure, who led the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services under President Joe Biden. Brooks-LaSure said the overwhelming majority of fraud and abuse she saw while running the agency was from health-care providers improperly billing Medicaid.

“The responsibility of any government to make sure that people are following the rules and that you’re looking at waste, fraud and abuse, those are legitimate responsibilities, but trying to keep people who are actually eligible from enrolling is really — it’s shameful,” Brooks-LaSure told us.

Brooks-LaSure also said enforcing new work requirements and more frequent eligibility verifications will eat up resources. Energy Committee staff said the new eligibility requirements will get checked through existing ways to check eligibility.

The Congressional Budget Office told Republicans that the bill would exceed the committee’s goal of reducing spending by $880 billion. But the number Democrats want to draw attention to is CBO’s estimate that Republican changes to Medicaid would result in over 13 million Medicaid users getting booted from the program by 2034.

“The math doesn’t lie: House Republicans are going to make billions in cuts to Medicaid and betray millions of Americans by leaving them without health care — all to hand tax breaks to billionaires. House Democrats will protect Medicaid and stand with American families, and that’s why we will take back the House in 2026,” said Ceara Gilmartin, a spokesperson for the House Majority PAC, Democrats’ main House super PAC.

That estimate is based on Democrats’ prediction of what would be in the bill last week, and not the latest legislation Republicans released this week. Republican staffers on the Energy Committee say the figure is a flawed estimate based on cuts that never made it in. The Republican committee chair accused Democrats of fearmongering.

Republicans will also review repeals of some of Biden’s energy agenda under the Inflation Reduction Act. The Energy and Commerce Committee is considering axing funding for federal programs targeting environmental justice and emission-free energy development, even programs that have enjoyed Republican support in the past. (The Energy Department’s loan office, which financially supported Elon Musk’s Tesla, would get funding slashed.) The Ways and Means Committee also could kill some tax credits for clean energy, which were the core of Biden’s legislation to encourage a transition from fossil fuels.

“In Nevada, this is a bipartisan issue,” Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada) said yesterday of the clean-energy tax credits. “This is about growing our economy, creating good-paying jobs and leaning into this clean energy future that is bringing new technology our way that we, in this country, should be leading.”

A new eight-figure ad campaign, Protect Our Jobs, is launching today in response to Ways and Means’ plans to cut the clean-energy tax credits. Its ad buy will target Republican members in districts with heavy reliance on clean-energy jobs, including Reps. Mike Carey (Ohio), Scott Perry (Pennsylvania), Rudy Yakym (Indiana), Gabe Evans (Colorado), Tom Barrett (Michigan), John James (Michigan), Juan Ciscomani (Arizona), Elijah Crane (Arizona) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa).

Republicans on the Ways and Means Committee are also looking at some partisan proposals to allow taxation on university endowments and popular moves to expand the standard deduction and extend the child tax credit. It also includes a tax deduction for tips — a campaign promise for Trump.

More controversially, the bill raises the limit for state and local tax deductions on federal income taxes from $10,000 to $30,000 for those making no more than $400,000 a year. Republicans in Democratic states have been on a crusade to deduct their particular state and local taxes, and it could still be a wedge issue as members continue to work through the bill.

Jacob Bogage has a breakdown of what’s in the bill here.

Happening today

Trump is making the first planned foreign visit of his second term today (he also went to Rome for Pope Francis’s funeral). His first stop is Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he will meet with leaders of the Persian Gulf’s Arab states and attend a U.S.-Saudi business conference. Other stops on his trip include Qatar’s capital, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates.

You might recall Trump made the first foreign visit of his first term to Saudi Arabia, where he was featured in a viral photo of him touching a glowing orb. But Tuesday’s visit differs from the previous one because it won’t include a stop in Israel, even as the longtime U.S. ally is engaged in a war in Gaza with U.S. support. Michael Birnbaum and Matt Viser report that Trump administration officials feel fatigued dealing with their Israeli counterparts, who one senior White House official said seemed to have visited with them “700 times.” (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been to Washington twice since Trump returned to office in January.)

The meeting will also focus predominantly on business, despite the unique security terrain in the region. Iran is in a vulnerable spot with many of its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen weakened in recent months. One of Iran’s biggest state allies, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was ousted from power in December.

The Persian Gulf States have been making friendly economic advances toward the United States lately. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman promised to invest $600 billion in the United States, a figure Trump wants to push to $1 trillion. Saudi Arabia also announced a massive release of crude oil to help bring down global fuel costs, which could politically help Trump, though it may not be in the Saudi oil firm’s immediate best financial interests. And Qatar is trying to gift Trump a 747.

Meanwhile, the Trump family has growing business interests in the region, with Trump’s sons crisscrossing the Middle East shortly before his visit, Susannah George, Cleve R. Wootson Jr. and Emily Davies report. Critics worry it could be a conflict of interest, though the White House asserts that Trump does not play a role in the Trump Organization now that he’s in office.

Get ready with The Post

What we’re watching

Pete Buttigieg heads to Cedar Rapids, Iowa, today for a town hall focused on veterans in the state Buttigieg won during the Democrats’ 2020 presidential nominating process.

The event is hosted by VoteVets Action Fund, a liberal political action committee that aims to represent veterans and military families in the political process. Buttigieg, who worked as transportation secretary under Biden, was a Navy intelligence reserve officer from 2009 to 2017.

Buttigieg is widely seen as someone who could run for president again, and while Iowa’s standing in the Democratic nominating process has fallen since the former mayor’s win, trips to the state continue to stoke speculation about political plans.

“It’s an opportunity to hear from people who served their country,” said Chris Meagher, Buttigieg’s spokesperson. “That is what this is all about. Obviously, Iowa has a special place in his heart. But it’s really focused on the actual conversation we are there to have.”

Meagher said Buttigieg, since leaving the Biden administration, has worked to “have conversations with Americans on issues that matter to them” through press events, podcasts and other forums. “I think you will see us continue to do these sorts of things going forward,” Meagher said.

The campaign

From the markets

Not surprisingly, the markets celebrated the news that the United States and China agreed to lower most of the tariffs they had imposed while the two negotiate for 90 days. The S&P 500 closed almost 3.3 percent higher, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped almost 4.4.

The deal offers a temporary reprieve in the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies. But even as Monday’s agreement lowers the temperature in their trade war, analysts said it did little to change the overall direction of deteriorating ties between Beijing and Washington.

In your local paper

Des Moines Register: Iowa Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand officially announced his gubernatorial campaign on Monday. “It’s not an Iowa that is bluer or redder. It’s an Iowa that is truer and better,” he said. He is the first Democrat to enter the race to succeed Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Send us a reply

Ethics experts are raising questions over Qatar’s offer of a free 747 for Trump, but Trump says it would be “stupid” not to accept a free plane. What do you think? Is it stupid to turn down the plane? Let us know your thoughts at earlytips@washpost.com.

Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan and Matthew on X: @merica and @matthewichoi.