15 February 2025, Bavaria, Munich: Volodymyr Oleksandrowytsch Selenskyj, President of Ukraine … [+] (Volodymyr Zelenskyy), speaks in the main hall of the conference hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich (Bavaria) on February 15, 2025. The 61st Munich Security Conference (MSC) will take place from February 14 to 16, 2025 at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Photo: Matthias Balk/dpa (Photo by Matthias Balk/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Dispatches from Ukraine. Day 1,091.
Discord Between the Atlantic Shores.
European leaders gathered in Paris on February 17 for high-stake talks dealing with the fallout from the new U.S. administration’s abrupt departure from longstanding policy on the war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump’s overtures to Moscow, including potentially excluding European allies from peace negotiations, have sparked anxiety across the continent, leaving the decades-old transatlantic NATO alliance in disarray. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted key EU leaders, including British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, to address what German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has called an “existential moment” for Europe’s security framework.
The sense of urgency comes after senior U.S. officials delivered rebukes of Europe’s defense spending and democratic values, which exposed the stark fractures between the U.S. and its allies. U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s harsh criticism of European policies at the Munich Security Conference, the world’s foremost defense summit, was met with disapproval from many delegates, who had hoped for reassurance of U.S. support for Ukraine. By contrast, his speech was praised by Trump for its bold stance.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested creating a joint European military contingent that could pave the way for the establishment of unified European armed forces, a significant step in EU military integration. He acknowledged, however, skepticism in some European capitals: Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico categorically rejected sending troops to Ukraine or supporting Ukraine’s NATO membership, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated that Poland also would not contribute troops directly.
The U.S. has proposed that peacekeeping forces in Ukraine should include not only European troops but personnel from third countries, including China and Brazil. Vance allegedly told European officials that a purely European contingent would be less effective in deterring further Russian aggression. Although Washington has ruled out deploying U.S. forces, European officials are considering backing another force, with France already planning to contribute nearly 10,000 troops. In total, European nations are debating the deployment of up to 30,000 troops under a peace agreement framework.
A high-level meeting between U.S. and Russian officials is set for Tuesday, February 18, in Saudi Arabia, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov leading delegations. The talks aim to improve bilateral relations and explore potential peace negotiations over the ongoing war in Ukraine, marking the most significant engagement between the two countries since the onset of Russia’s invasion. Notably, Ukrainian officials will be absent from these discussions, leading President Zelenskyy to announce that Kyiv would not recognize the outcome of any such U.S.-Russia discussions.
U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, assured NATO officials in Brussels on February 17 that the U.S. would not impose a peace deal on Ukraine. Although he pledged to listen to all parties’ views on the peace process, negotiations between the U.S. and Russia without the EU could significantly diminish Kyiv’s role in the discussions.
A leaked U.S. draft of an agreement between Washington and Kyiv has raised further alarm in Ukraine. The draft includes Trump’s demand for U.S. control over critical Ukrainian resources, including minerals, oil, gas and related infrastructure. Under the terms, the U.S. would claim half of Ukraine’s recurring revenues from resource extraction, valued at an estimated $500 billion, and impose strict rights to future licenses, giving Washington near-total control over Ukraine’s economic landscape. This demand has been described as tantamount to the economic colonization of the country and sparked panic among Ukrainian officials.
The agreement, which President Zelenskyy initially proposed to secure continued U.S. military support, mirrors the reparations imposed on defeated nations after World War II. Trump has framed his demand as a necessary payback, warning that Ukraine risks falling into Russia’s sphere if it rejects the terms. Critics of the deal argue, however, that it imposes an unachievable financial burden on Ukraine, which is already reeling from the ongoing war. With Ukraine’s mineral wealth often overstated and political pressures mounting, the country will likely face a painful decision between resisting U.S. economic domination and securing the country’s survival in the face of Russia’s ongoing military assault.
During the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian philanthropist Victor Pinchuk gathered officials from the US, Europe, and Ukraine to discuss various perspectives on the ongoing peace talks over an annual 8th Munich Lunch.
General Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy, shed light on Trump administration’s efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. “We do want to make sure that the peace is lasting and sustainable, and ensure the sovereignty of Ukraine, and that once this thing stops, it will never start again. Otherwise, the consequences will be enormous on either side,” Kellogg said. However, no specific security guarantees have been outlined yet. Olha Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine, Minister of Justice of Ukraine, reminded everyone of the war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine: “The importance of Russia’s accountability and justice is beyond question.” Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Denmark, called for ramping up European defense output: “The most important thing for me personally, is to give Ukrainians what they need to win this war.” He warned against letting Russia define European borders in 2025. “Are we willing to allow North Korea, Iran and Russia to make decisions on the architecture of our security? Of course, the answer to these questions is a big “No”.” Full discussion, moderated by Zany Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, can be viewed here.
Attack on Chornobyl nuclear power plant.
The protective shield at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, which has been off-line since 2000, burst into flames on February 14. Ukraine contends that Russia attacked the plant with an Iranian-supplied Shahed 136 drone carrying high explosives; Russia has denied the allegation and Ukraine has yet to present any evidence in support of its claim. Firefighters have extinguished the blaze and, according to Ukrainian and IAEA officials, no radiation has leaked through the inner, intact layer of the damaged shield.
By Danylo Nosov, Alan Sacks