Editor’s note: Some readers may have received yesterday’s Morning Update today. We apologize for the error.
Good morning. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is a rare diplomatic feat in the Middle East, but the destruction continues in Gaza, where Israel has vowed to eliminate Hamas. The Globe and Mail’s Eric Reguly will answer questions about the deal, plus we’ll look at Nova Scotia’s election and the new office holiday party. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Ottawa vows to boost spending on the border in response to Trump’s tariffs
- Supreme Court of Canada rules Quebec must properly fund Indigenous police force
- Special mediation temporarily suspended as Canada Post negotiations break down
Middle East
What we know about the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
It is hoped the ceasefire that started yesterday could end the conflict at the Israeli-Lebanese border, which has killed thousands of people. However, Israel’s military said today that an arrival of suspects was detected in several areas in southern Lebanon, and called it a violation.
Even after the truce began, Israel continued to warn its residents not to return to their villages near the border or approach its troops. The country has said its military goal in Lebanon was to ensure the safe return of about 60,000 Israelis who had fled their homes along the northern border after Iran-backed Hezbollah started firing rockets at them in support of Hamas.
When Israel started its invasion of Lebanon, Eric Reguly was on the ground to report. He’s been following the political turmoil in Lebanon for years. Today, he answers questions about the ceasefire as the dust continues to settle.
Vehicles drive near damaged buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs.Mohamed Azakir/Reuters
What has the impact of the war been on Lebanese citizens? What did you see?
Horrific. Lebanon is a tiny, essentially bankrupt country with no president, no functioning government, crumbling public services and regular blackouts. Israel’s war with Hezbollah came with relentless aerial bombardment and an invasion on Oct. 1 that sent about a million Lebanese fleeing to safer zones, generally in central Beirut and areas north of the city. The government and the Amal party, which is allied with the Shia residents who suffered much of the displacement, turned hundreds of schools and hotels into temporary residences. Others crowded onto streets, parks and beaches or slept in their cars.
Central Beirut turned into what looked like an open-air refugee camp (as I reported while I was there in October), and the tensions with locals rose by the minute, with some clashes breaking out. Humanitarian agencies did their best but could not cope with the onslaught. Hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, fearing they would get killed, fled back to Syria. Absent this week’s ceasefire, Lebanon faced social collapse, including overwhelmed hospitals and children losing their academic years because their classrooms had turned into dormitories.
Mohammed Sleem hugs his daughter Menisa Sleem. He meets her after two months, according to Mohammed, since the ceasefire took effect.Adnan Abidi/Reuters
What about the Lebanese-Canadians there?
There are some 45,000 Lebanese-Canadians in Lebanon. The Canadian embassy and Global Affairs Canada told them to leave many times while Beirut airport was still open (miraculously, it did not close because its runways did not get bombed). Thousands of seats were blocked off for them. But only a few left. My theory is that the Lebanese are used to war. Conflict has been a near-constant feature of their lives since the civil war broke out in 1975. They are survivors, and many seem to have a high tolerance for discomfort, even danger. Living in Lebanon is living on the edge.
What are the ceasefire logistics exactly?
Israel has 60 days to withdraw its ground forces, which had reached the Litani River, 30 kilometres north of the Israeli border. Busloads of soldiers are already leaving for Israel. Hezbollah has to remove its weaponry from the same area – south of the Litani. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the Lebanese Army are to fill the void, monitor any infractions of the peace and gain the trust of local residents, many of whom had seen Hezbollah as their protectors against Israel. To do so, the Lebanese Army, which is small and ill-equipped, has to be bulked up. The U.S. and France have promised to help them – we’ll see. If the army fails, the security void will inevitably be refilled by Hezbollah. I wrote an analysis story about this, if you’d like to learn more.
The Globe and Mail
What is UN Resolution 1701, and what does it have to do with what is happening today?
The ceasefire and long-range peace plan in Lebanon is based on UN Resolution 1701, which came into effect in 2006 and was, like the new plan, aimed at disarming all militias in the south, including Hezbollah, and replacing them with UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army. It didn’t quite work. Hezbollah took over and essentially made the region a state within a state.
How fragile is this deal?
Too early to tell, and the ceasefire was violated on Thursday, Israel said. The optimistic view is that both Hezbollah and the Israelis are tapped out in this war. Both sides took big losses on the ground, though Hezbollah took much more damage (remember the pager explosions?) and its leaders were assassinated. While both sides in effect declared victory, neither clearly won or lost. Israel is fighting on a lot of fronts – Yemen, Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iran – and one less front would suit them fine. Remember, in the 34-day Hezbollah-Israel war in 2006, neither side won, and Israel withdrew.
Does this really mean hope for Gaza, as President Joe Biden says?
Who knows? Biden has been pushing for peace in Gaza for many months with zero success. Certainly , Hamas is more isolated now that Hezbollah is moving out of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was sympathetic to the Palestinians in Gaza, to the point that they started lobbing missiles into Israel a day after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel. My view is that the American- and French-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon shows that deals can be done among warring parties in the Middle East. So it does add momentum for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. But Gaza has been mostly destroyed, so what will the Gazans go back to? The real questions are who will rebuild and govern postwar Gaza and whether Israel will resettle parts of it.
Does Netanyahu’s ICC arrest warrant complicate any of the talks?
No, not really. Neither the United States nor Israel are party to the International Criminal Court. America’s support for Israel seems ironclad, and there is no sense that Donald Trump’s pro-Israel stand will fade or collapse once he returns to the White House. But certainly, the arrest warrant is an embarrassment for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Shot
‘It makes the holiday party more inclusive’
The trend is holiday parties that are less corporate, more personal and built around a special experience which really taken off since the pandemic.Illustration by Heidi Berton
Boozy late-nighters are out. Offbeat holiday office parties are in. Companies are embracing themed team-building experiences and daytime celebrations this season. What does that look like? Think: an après-ski costume party, hip-hop dance lesson or an evening with a psychic.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: A blue tide swept across Nova Scotia Tuesday as Progressive Conservative incumbent Tim Houston achieved a super-majority government.
Abroad: After years of often emotional debate, British MPs will vote this week on whether to open the door to assisted dying.
Heated: Alberta’s plan to defy Ottawa’s emissions cap on oil and gas producers includes significant government overreach into private operations, legal experts say, including shareholder disclosure.
Chilled: The forecast suggests this winter will be generally colder and more impactful than last year, meaning Canada’s warmest winter on record is unlikely to make a repeat performance.