Netanyahu’s ‘Iran first’ strategy ignores the real enemy – opinion

The so-called Eleventh Commandment—”Hamas is deterred”—is now well known to every Israeli. Those of us on the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee became acquainted with it long before October 7.

It was echoed by all security bodies in every forum. This assumption was based on a neo-Marxist worldview that sees man as a socio-economic being. “Sinwar will not risk his immense wealth or Hamas’ social and economic interests,” they explained to us.

Despite the fact that Hamas is an enemy driven entirely by identity, religion, and ideology, the official intelligence assessment firmly concluded that Hamas prioritizes economic interests—hence, “Hamas is deterred.”

October 7 has passed. We have crossed rivers of blood: beheadings, hostages, rapes—a day of Holocaust. And yet, this same dangerous refrain continues, with the military and political leadership still failing to recognize the true nature of our enemy, define it correctly, and confront it accordingly. Israel remains deeply entrenched in the same misguided conception—only the name has changed.

The “Hamas is deterred” concept has now evolved into the “Head of the Snake” doctrine, which currently guides the security establishment’s strategic outlook. Every discussion in the cabinet, the National Security Council, security leadership forums, and the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee begins with the ultimate preface: “The primary axis—Iran!”

Iran is the head of the snake—decapitate it, and you will achieve a new Middle East. Even the Nagel Committee, which was established to examine necessary changes in the defense budget, concluded unequivocally that investment in ground forces should be postponed, as threats from neighboring states were not identified as significant. Iran was deemed the root cause of all threats, and therefore, all energy, budgets, and training should be directed at countering the Iranian enemy.

The truth is that even Iran itself does not see things this way. Khomeini, who established the Ayatollah regime, and his successors were never Iranian patriots. Iran is of no significance to them—it is merely a tool in service of the global revolution.

Their primary goal is the religious victory of global jihad. If Iran is destroyed in the process, that is entirely acceptable. From the outset, the Khomeinist ideology was designed so that the global revolution would continue even if Iran were to fall. This is why radical Shiites and Sunnis alike invest above all in religious ideology.

The real enemy

And that is the real enemy—not just of Israel but of the entire world. Yet, the leaders who adhere to the old conception are missing this crucial point. The enemy is not a state, an army, or an organization—it is religious ideology. Wherever it takes root, it fosters both social and military organizations.

Even when these organizations are dismantled, they regenerate time and time again. They will always reemerge because the fuel of the revolution is not military strength—it is spirit. And that is what we must break in order to achieve victory.

“The primary axis—Allah.” This should have been the security establishment’s realization after October 7. This understanding has dramatic implications for Israel’s and the West’s strategy, as well as for intelligence assessments and operational planning. The first conclusion from this realization is: Gaza first! Not Iran first.

Why? Because the October 7 war is the ultimate litmus test of how a Western state fares against radical Islamic ideology. If Hamas’ ideology emerges victorious, as has been the case so far, this lesson will be learned in every arena—from London to Tehran, from Damascus to Berlin. The conclusion will be that the postmodern West, despite its overwhelming military and economic advantage, does not know how to defeat radical Islam.

1. The West struggles to target imams and mosques due to a distorted discourse on religious freedom—even though they are the Muslim equivalent of Goebbels’ propaganda machine.

2. The West fails to understand that victory is defined by control over land, because the enemy’s ideology is driven by a totalitarian aspiration to conquer the entire world as a religious imperative.

3. The West is incapable of subjugating enemy populations and imposing human values on them, because deep down, it justifies their struggle as that of the oppressed proletariat.

This is why Gaza is the test of the West. If we cannot even secure victory in Gaza, we will fail everywhere else.

Moreover, the immediate regional threat around us is far greater than Iran because the enemy’s goal is the conquest and destruction of Israel. Missiles from Iran would be met with missiles from Israel, and on Judgment Day, with even more strategic weaponry.

But what the jihadist fighters did in Gaza could just as easily be done by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Jordan, or in Lebanon and Syria. Against this threat, Israel needs an army with a strong ground force—one with the capability and willingness to seize land, establish control, and subdue the population, just as the free world did with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. This is why victory against Iran—or anywhere else—begins and ends between Gaza and Rafah.

Tragically, our military and political leadership has already folded and retreated from Gaza two weeks ago. This week, the Netanyahu-Trump meeting will likely continue the “Head of the Snake” doctrine, focusing primarily on two topics: Saudi Arabia and Iran, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The ultimate enemy, and with it the possibility of total victory, will not even be on the table.

MK Amit Halevi, Likud, member of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and chairman of the Knesset Subcommittee on Security Doctrine and Force Buildup.