Markets have seen no material disruption from the war so far, but as the fighting goes on it is a matter of when, not if
An unexpected feature of the year-long war in the Middle East is that oil supplies have not been materially disrupted. There have been marginal disruptions, including the dozens of attacks staged by Iran-allied Houthi forces on Red Sea oil shipping, and Israel’s destruction of a Houthi-controlled fuel terminal at the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. But the 20m b/d flow of oil exports from the Mideast Gulf to world markets has continued unabated, with no major blow to energy security or the global economy. In lieu of the war’s end, however, that condition is unlikely to last much longer. After all, oil has come into the crosshairs in nearly every war during the past 100 years, ever since it became
