Playbook: About those endless wars

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

WHERE TO EVEN START? Washington — and the world — is today trying to process what we all witnessed last night after Donald Trump upended decades of U.S. foreign policy by pledging to “take over” the Gaza Strip. The reaction to the president’s head-spinning East Room press conference is one of shock and bemusement as U.S. politicians, government officials, foreign diplomats and, yes, weary POLITICO newsletter writers try to figure out if we should take Trump literally or seriously this time. It goes without saying this story is going to dominate the news cycle throughout the day … or at least until the president starts talking about something else.

First things first: We’d best go through what he actually said.

The set-up: Trump, standing right next to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, said Gaza “has been a symbol of death and destruction for so many decades… An unlucky place, for a long time.” Netenyahu looked on, straight-faced.

The proposal: “The U.S. will take over the Gaza strip, and we’ll do a job with it too. We’ll own it. And be responsible for dismantling all the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site … create an economic development that will supply unlimited jobs and housing for people of the area … I do see a long-term ownership position [for the U.S.].”

The reasoning: “Gaza is a hellhole right now … The only reason the Palestinians want to go back to Gaza is because they have no alternative … They instead can occupy all of a beautiful area with homes and safety and they can live out their lives in peace and harmony.”

The method: “If it’s necessary, we’ll do that [send in U.S. troops]. We’re gonna take over that piece and we’re gonna develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs.”

The outcome: “I envision world people living there. The world’s people. I think you’ll make that into an international, unbelievable place … The Riviera of the Middle East.”

So let’s get into it: If we take all this seriously, Trump is proposing the most radical U.S. intervention in the Middle East since President George W. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003 — and we all know how that went. Let’s be clear: Palestinian leaders say their people do not want to leave their homeland. Powerful Arab nations like Saudi Arabia have rejected the idea straight off the bat. And the idea that U.S. troops forcibly displacing 1.8 million Gazans from their homeland would bring stability to the region seems … optimistic, at best.

And then there’s the domestic politics: Ending ‘endless wars’ is a promise Trump has made countless times. “It is not the duty of U.S. troops to solve ancient conflicts in faraway lands that many people have never even heard of,” he told West Point grads a few years ago. But now the “America First” president wants to take on peace-keeping in Gaza, potentially with military involvement … and then spend billions building real estate in the Middle East?

Indeed: Everyone is (rightly) making the same point on this — we’re witnessing a far more imperialist version of Trump this time round. We can now add Gaza to an improbable but growing list of American expansionary targets already containing Greenland, Canada and Panama.

But is he serious? This, of course, is the central question. You might recall that several years ago (OK, it was Monday) Trump was poised to start a major trade war with America’s closest neighbors — before calling the whole thing off and agreeing to terms with Mexico and Canada. Some observers wonder if we’re witnessing similar “Art of the Deal”-style diplomacy today, with Trump making a brazen pitch to get talks started. Less charitable opponents on the left think it’s all just cover to hand Gaza over to Israel.

INSIGHT: My ace colleague Rachael Bade texts in with some top insight after conversations with a senior Trump admin official late last night. Her conclusion is that Trump is indeed serious about finding some kind of dramatic solution in the Middle East — though whether it’s quite this, remains to be seen. “It sounds like Trump would love nothing more than to strike a big, beautiful peace deal to the longest-running war in recent history,” Rachael concludes, while querying — like the rest of us — whether displacing Palestinians could ever be a viable route.

A few notable things from her conversation:
• This Trump official did not accept the premise that Trump’s plan would require American troops in Gaza. Expect plenty more pushback on that assumption from the White House today.
• Asked about the controversy of moving Palestinians off their homeland, this person responded: “Currently there is a war taking them off the planet — so are we serious about trying to find a solution so that people don’t keep dying for decades and decades and decades? Yes.”
• The official argued that it’s in the interest of other Arab powers, like Saudi Arabia, to find a solution to the conflict — and that Trump throwing his ideas out there might inspire others to counter. As the man himself says: We’ll see.

The writeups: Naturally, this story is leading almost every bulletin and website this morning. The WSJ says the proposal “left the idea of a Palestinian state in tatters” and “would deeply involve the U.S. in a massive development project that Trump officials said could take 10 to 15 years” … The NYT calls it “one of the most brazen ideas that any American leader has advanced in years” and warns the “forcible relocation of populations” is barred by the Geneva Convention … The AP notes Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry issued a “sharply worded reaction” making clear its backing for an independent Palestinian state is a “firm, steadfast and unwavering position.”

How the admin is handling it: Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, swiftly backed his boss’s idea on Fox News. “Gaza today is inhabitable and will probably be uninhabitable for at least the next 10-15 years,” he told Sean Hannity. “Peace in the region means a better life for the Palestinians. A better life is not necessarily tied to the physical space that you’re in today.“

Sounding less sure: Secretary of State Marco Rubio danced around the details in his statement on X. “Gaza MUST BE FREE from Hamas,” he wrote, which, of course, is a rather different point. “As @POTUS shared today, the United States stands ready to lead and Make Gaza Beautiful Again. Our pursuit is one of lasting peace in the region for all people.” Hmmm.

All eyes on the GOP: Once again, Hill Republicans will be scrambling for a coherent response to Trump this morning, and the usual obfuscation — Senate Foreign Relations Chair Jim Risch (R-Idaho) told reporters last night he had not heard the president’s remarks — will only hold so long. Keep a close eye on Speaker Mike Johnson’s weekly press conference at 10 a.m. if you want to hear the agreed GOP holding line.

Saying what they’re all thinking: Leaving the Capitol last night, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), per NYT, said he didn’t “think it’s the best use of United States resources to spend a bunch of money in Gaza,” and would “prefer that to be spent in the United States first.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) added: “I think most South Carolinians would probably not be excited about sending Americans to take over Gaza” (h/t Marc Rod). Jordain Carney and Mia McCarthy have loads more GOP reaction.

Where are the Dems at? In uproar, and pushing the “send in the troops” angle predictably hard. “He’s totally lost it,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on X. “A U.S. invasion of Gaza would lead to the slaughter of thousands of U.S. troops and decades of war in the Middle East.” “Trump wants to invade Panama, Greenland and now Gaza. Trump is a warmonger,” posted Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), a Marine who served in Iraq. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who is Palestinian, wrote: ”This president is openly calling for ethnic cleansing.”

AROUND THE WORLD: Predictably, the idea is not going down terribly well. Australian PM Anthony Albanese was the first Western ally to comment (they get up early over there) and reiterated his support for a two-state solution. France’s foreign ministry put out a strong statement making clear “its opposition to any forced displacement of the Palestinian population of Gaza, which would constitute a serious violation of international law.” It added: “The future of Gaza must be seen not in terms of control by a third state, but within the framework of a future Palestinian state.”

And in the region: It’s not just Saudi Arabia pushing back hard. Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, said Trump’s proposals were “unacceptable” and that relocating Palestinians from Gaza was something “neither we, nor the region, can accept.” The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) said it “affirms its rejection of all calls for the displacement of the Palestinian people from their homeland.”

What happens next? Who knows? We’ll certainly all talk about it all day. Trump will likely have more to say at his next public appearance, signing an executive order banning transgender girls and women from participating in women’s sports. (He’s also meeting California Gov. Gavin Newsom today, which should be fun.) Dems will howl and wail. Republicans will offer lukewarm support. The White House will blame the media for distorting a perfectly sensible peace plan. The world will watch on, bemused. We’ll all stumble on.

NEWS FROM ELON’S WOOD CHIPPER: All USAID workers around the world — barring those with special designations — will be placed on administrative leave by the end of this week as Elon Musk’s war on aid goes into overdrive. You can read the memo yourself (given it’s now the literal front page of the USAID site) telling all staffers worldwide they must stop work, with those overseas being shipped home within 30 days. Most Washington-based staff have already been put on leave, Nahal Toosi and Carmen Paun report, while CBS says USAID buildings across the DMV region are shuttered.

Gone in 60 seconds: CNN reports President Trump chuckled yesterday when a reporter asked if Musk was winding down the entire agency. “Sounds like it!” Trump beamed. WSJ’s Alex Ward notes that, per the Congressional Research Service, “because Congress established USAID as an independent establishment within the executive branch, the president does not have the authority to abolish it.” But it seems the current restructure — if we can call it that — is sailing through unopposed.

Musk read: “How Trump Gutted America’s $40 Billion Aid Agency in Two Weeks”, via Joel Schectman and colleagues at the WSJ. The four-bylined investigation has loads of good nuggets, including that “the cuts came so fast that one dismissed employee had to be rehired to process other employees’ time sheets.”

The protests begin: Opponents of the aid cuts will gather on the Hill today for one of the first major protests against President Trump’s actions. The “Rally to Restore Foreign Aid Now” will see members of Congress, former U.S. government officials and anti-Trump demonstrators gather at Upper Senate Park to protest against the shutdown of USAID. Speakers will include Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), plus various former USAID officials. There was a separate demonstration outside the Treasury yesterday focused squarely on Musk.

But but but: As our Rachael Bade writes in her latest “Corridors” column, prominent Dem strategists fear that vocal resistance to USAID cuts will not help the party reconnect with millions of lost voters. “My heart is with the people out on the street outside USAID, but my head tells me: ‘Man, Trump will be well satisfied to have this fight,’” says veteran strategist David Axelrod. “When you talk about cuts, the first thing people say is: Cut foreign aid.” Rahm Emanuel tells Rachael much the same: “You don’t fight every fight. You don’t swing at every pitch.”

Sure, whatever: Musk himself certainly seems unconcerned by all the liberal outrage. He’s changed his X bio to “White House tech support,” and spent the night gleefully retweeting clips from TikTok and Fox News attacking wasteful spending at USAID. This, we can safely say, is his happy place.

Not in a happy place: East Africa, where millions of people have been relying on USAID soup kitchens to stay alive. WaPo’s Katharine Houreld and Rachel Chason have a truly bleak report from Nairobi.

RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: House Speaker Mike Johnson will update the House GOP conference this morning on the status of his ailing budget reconciliation plan following a closed-door meeting last night with key Republican holdouts. (The rest of us will have to wait to hear from Johnson at today’s presser at 10 a.m.)

What’s on the table: Leaving last night’s meeting, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said $1 trillion is a realistic floor for spending cuts in the reconciliation package — a statement seemingly designed to get conservative hardliners on board with the one-bill plan.

The context: Johnson is “at serious risk of being outmaneuvered by an unlikely GOP alliance” as he “struggles to sell his approach to enacting President Donald Trump’s sprawling domestic agenda,” our Meredith Lee Hill and Jordain Carney report. “A rebellion among conservative hard-liners has already forced the speaker to scrap his ambitious timeline for advancing the border, energy and tax bill. Senators, meanwhile, are getting antsy about inaction in the House and are working with Freedom Caucus members on an end-run around Johnson’s strategy.”

The pressure campaign: At a dinner this coming Friday at Mar-a-Lago, Senate Republicans are expected to urge Trump to stop waiting on Johnson & co. to get it together and instead go for a two-bill plan. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told Axios’ Stef Kight that he expects the message to be: “It’s now, Mr. President. It’s time to move. We have this.”

SHUTDOWN COUNTDOWN: With just six weeks to go until federal government funding lapses, some lawmakers fear that Trump’s embrace of funding freezes and general penchant for discord could result in a shutdown despite total Republican control of Washington, our Jennifer Scholtes reports this morning.

Inspiring confidence: “I don’t think anybody thinks a shutdown is a good thing. But the politics are such that we could certainly stumble into one without meaning to,” said House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.).

What about a bipartisan deal? Looking less likely by the hour, given the contentious political climate in Trump’s Washington. Dems “say any good faith agreement with their GOP counterparts is meaningless if Trump disregards the will of Congress by using ‘impoundment’ to withhold funding they pass into law,” Jennifer writes.

BEST OF THE REST

CONFIRMATION WATCH: The Senate officially confirmed Pam Bondi as Trump’s attorney general last night in a mostly party-line vote, 54-46, with Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman (obvs) the lone Democrat who supported her … The Senate Small Business Committee will hold a procedural vote today on Kelly Loeffler’s nomination for SBA chief at 11:15 a.m. Loeffler is expected to be confirmed without issue, though an exact date hasn’t been set on the final vote.

Get ready for a late night: Senate Democrats will reportedly hold up business on the chamber floor through Thursday evening to protest the nomination of Trump’s OMB Director-designate Russell Vought, CNN’s Manu Raju reports. Though Vought is expected to be ultimately confirmed along party lines, the protests “will begin after Vought clears the final procedural hurdle tomorrow afternoon, limiting debate to 30 hours before the final confirmation vote Thursday night.”

NAILS ON THE CHALKBOARD: Trump added credence to reports that he’s planning to dismantle the Department of Education, telling reporters yesterday that he hopes Education Secretary-designate Linda McMahon will eventually “put herself out of a job,” USA Today’s Zachary Schermele reports.

SPIN VS. REALITY: “Trump’s mass deportation plan he promised during the campaign has not yet taken hold — but you wouldn’t know that from the White House PR campaign,” Myah Ward and Jessica Piper report. Despite the White House’s slew of social media posts touting their crackdown on illegal immigration, “the number of daily Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests, trumpeted each day on X, are still about where they were at times under President Barack Obama.”

A 2028 PROBLEM TO WATCH: “The GOP keeps failing to make Nebraska a winner-take-all state. Now it might ask voters to do it,” by AP’s Margery Beck

DCA CRASH LATEST: Officials say they have officially recovered all 67 victims from the wreckage of the devastating crash, bringing an end to six days of search and recovery efforts in the Potomac. “The chief medical examiner’s office is still working to identify the final victim,” NBC News’ Doha Madani reports, as authorities now focus on clearing the wreckage of the crash from the icy water.

HOGG WILD: “Why some centrist Dems fear David Hogg could ‘do more harm than good,’” by Elena Schneider: “[Hogg’s election] has been accompanied by frustration among centrists that a 24-year-old March for our Lives co-founder with a million followers could hurt the party’s brand … They vented that his ascension is representative of Democrats’ failure to grapple with some voters’ frustration that the party is overly concerned with diversity and appeals to the far left.”

THE PRESIDENT THAT CHINA WANTED? Despite Trump’s tariffs and tough talk on China, he has “started his second term looking like the U.S. president Beijing has long wanted,” Nahal Toosi writes this morning in her latest “Compass” column, highlighting the reaction in parts of the developing world to the 47th president. “Threats may get results for a short time, but then over a long time, people are taking notes: We’re not going to put all our eggs into America,” one African diplomat in Washington tells her.

Take your time: Trump told reporters yesterday he’s in “no rush” to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, despite expectations of a call yesterday following China’s round of retaliatory tariffs. Trump also heavily downplayed the significance of Beijing’s move, Ari Hawkins reports.

Attention, Temu shoppers: The U.S. Postal Service announced yesterday that it will temporarily stop accepting packages from China and Hong Kong. The NYT notes that the U.S. “imports about 3 million parcels a day with almost no customs inspection and no duties collected — with most of them coming from China.”

MEXICO’S SURGE BEGINS: In her agreement with Trump that forestalled his threatened 25 percent tariffs, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum promised to crack down on illegal migration and the fentanyl trade with a surge of troops to the U.S.-Mexico border. Yesterday, we got a taste of that, as nearly 10,000 Mexican troops were deployed “to cities and towns on the border with the United States,” the El Paso Times’ Daniel Borunda reports.

LET’S MAKE A DEAL: In a new interview with British broadcaster Piers Morgan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he’s open to a peace deal with Russia and believes “President Trump wants to succeed in this situation,” Ali Bianco reports. Zelenskyy also added that he “is ready to move to the diplomatic track and open negotiations — after calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a ‘murderer’ who he sees as his ‘enemy.’ He said he will not accept territorial concessions in the eastern swath of the country, which is currently under Russian occupation.”

Vivek Ramaswamy, getting a wee bit ahead of himself, suggested to the WSJ that he would seek a second term as Ohio governor … if, of course, he is elected to a first one in 2026.

Elizabeth Warren has found an area of common ground with Donald Trump: cracking down on debanking practices by big banks.

Trump said he has “left instructions” for Iran to be “obliterated” if it assassinates him, per the AP.

Neil Jacobs, of “Sharpiegate” scandal renown, was tapped to lead the NOAA.

FOR YOUR RADAR — George Nader, a key witness in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Trump, has been ordered to give an unusual deposition in a criminal case just days before Nader is to be released from jail and leave the country, Josh Gerstein writes in.

U.S. District Court Judge Randolph Moss issued the order along with a withering rebuke yesterday to one of the defense lawyers seeking the deposition on behalf of Andy Khawaja, a Lebanese-American businessman and prolific political donor facing two criminal prosecutions in the U.S.

“I don’t think I’ve ever received such an outrageous request in my time as a judge,” Moss said in response to Khawaja’s request that Nader be blocked from leaving the U.S. until he can testify at a trial that hasn’t been set because Khawaja is a fugitive. “Your request that I should detain Mr. Nader is the greatest non-starter I’ve ever heard … I would be embarrassed. … It is mind boggling.”

Nader is set to be released on Thursday from a halfway house in Baltimore after serving back-to-back prison sentences on child-sex-related charges and a charge related to the foreign-donations scheme where Khawaja remains under indictment.

According to prosecutors, Khawaja and Nader concocted a scheme to funnel millions of dollars from abroad to the U.S. in political donations aimed at currying favor with Clinton on behalf of officials in the United Arab Emirates.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at a reception and new member meet and greet on Capitol Hill hosted by Defend The Vote Action Fund: Reps. Herb Conway (D-N.J.), Adam Gray (D-Calif.), George Whitesides (D-Calif.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.) and Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), LaShawn Warren, Marina Jenkins, Lee Drutman, Cindy Brown, David Bond, Aaron Scherb, and Greta Bedekovics.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Erin Harkey will be CEO of Americans For the Arts. She previously was commissioner of the Department of Cultural Affairs and Special Events for the city of Chicago.

TRANSITIONS — Maddie Salamone is joining Pacific Legal Foundation’s federal legal policy team. She previously was an attorney at Bentley Goodrich Kison. … Van Hilderbrand is joining Honigman as a partner. He previously was a principal at Miles & Stockbridge. … Will Barry is now comms director for Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.). He previously was comms director at the House Financial Services Committee. …

… David Miller has joined the government affairs and strategic counsel practice at Kasowitz Benson Torres. He most recently was senior counsel and policy adviser to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) for her Senate Commerce portfolio. … Alexandra Bell will be president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. She previously was deputy assistant secretary for nuclear affairs in the State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability. … Lila Nieves-Lee is returning to Visa as a VP of federal affairs, Punchbowl’s Brendan Pedersen and Max Cohen report. She most recently has been GOP staff director for the Senate Banking Committee.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: Due to a production error, a struck-through bit of text was inadvertently published.

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