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Last weekend’s decision by eight members of Opec-plus to raise August crude output by 548,000 barrels per day puts the group just one month away from completing the phased 2.2 million b/d increase that began in April, assuming the pace continues. The group cited “current healthy market fundamentals” and “low oil inventories” as reasons for the accelerated unwinding. But insiders and observers point to additional factors influencing Opec-plus’ decisions, including a desire to recapture some lost market share — both externally and within the group — and navigating other internal dynamics. The key questions now are how much additional oil will actually hit the market and what Opec-plus will do once this tranche of voluntary cuts is unwound. Insiders admit not knowing what will come next. There is growing consensus around a surplus of supply later this year given additional volumes coming on stream in the second half — both within and outside of Opec-plus — and expectations that demand growth will slow in the fourth quarter. In its latest forecast, Energy Intelligence sees an average supply surplus of 760,000 b/d for 2025, inclusive of Opec-plus’ latest and expected future production raises. The US Energy Information Administration updated its outlook this week to an expected surplus of 1.1 million b/d in 2025. Much uncertainty remains, however, from risks around US trade policy to continued upheaval in the Middle East. “This thing with Iran and Israel is not over,” an oil trader at a large Mideast Gulf producer said. Demand in the second half could also surprise to the upside — Opec sees demand 1.3 million b/d higher in the third quarter compared to the second, close to average consensus. It sees another 900,000 b/d gain in the fourth quarter, which is above consensus.