The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has released the English version of its Annual Strategic Report (ASR) for 2024-2025, 255 pages long, titled “Globalization of Crises and Complexity of Conflicts.” It is worth noting that the ASR has been published annually since December 2016.
This report offers a comprehensive analysis of the most significant conflicts and critical geopolitical issues affecting both the region and the world, illustrated with figures and supported by statistics gathered from reliable sources. Additionally, it presents our readers with the most likely scenarios that may unfold in 2025. A notable update in this edition is Rasanah’s expansion of the conflict coverage scope, including new topics and countries.
It delves into the ongoing great power competition for global influence, marked by unprecedented challenges to the longstanding concept of absolute dominance. It critically examines the ineffectiveness of UN bodies in conflict resolution and the impact of regime changes in the Middle East, which has emerged as a focal point of volatility and transformation. Through four comprehensive sections, our report provides insights into international developments, regional shifts and Saudi policy trends as well as the ebb and flow of Iranian regional and international influence. It equips our readers with the knowledge necessary to better understand the geopolitics of the world today.
Global Developments
The global arena has witnessed several developments in resolving conflicts through UN bodies and interactions between great powers, alongside significant transformations in the world economy and non-traditional security threats. This section of the report reviews key issues that defined the 2024 geopolitical landscape, exploring the complexity of conflict resolution within the international system, reassessing US hegemony and the key challenges and strategic considerations it faces, examining China’s complex challenges in the Indo-Pacific dispute and analyzing global economic developments. Additionally, it addresses the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, characterized as a war of attrition, and delves into non-traditional security issues as well as the evolving religious landscape in the Islamic world. The ASR forecasts that the current global volatility amid rising competition between great powers will continue. To maintain its position, The United States is keeping pace with current international developments, which challenge US hegemony and the longstanding world order.
Regional Developments
In 2024, the geopolitical rivalry in the Middle East intensified, driven by Israeli and Iranian efforts to establish a new paradigm of regional deterrence and conflict. Consequently, the Middle East has reemerged as a focal point of both regional and global interest. The Gulf states maintained a stance of positive neutrality amidst escalating regional and international tensions. Meanwhile, Türkiye embraced novel strategies aimed at securing both regional and international advantages. Central Asian countries enacted a comprehensive foreign policy to adapt to the shifting international landscape. In contrast, Africa continued to grapple with instability, fueled by internal crises and external interventions. The crisis in Bangladesh further reverberated across South Asia. According to our analysis, the geopolitical transformations in the region are anticipated to progress into 2025, especially considering the improbability of Iran regaining its former spheres of influence amid numerous internal and external challenges.
Saudi Arabia’s 2024 Policy
In 2024, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia further enhanced its national policy based on Vision 2030, making significant strides in strengthening Saudi Arabia’s position in the Arab world, the region and globally. This section discusses Saudi policies and responses to challenges with a resilient vision, including the Saudi response to Arab and regional developments and Saudi Arabia’s position amid global shifts. According to the report, Saudi Arabia will continue its support of the future of the Middle East, including the Gulf region, by cooperating with its regional and international allies to de-escalate tensions and end conflicts in the region. Saudi Arabia will likely mediate major regional thorny issues between different countries with the aim to restore stability and security to the Middle East.
Iran Overview In 2024, Iran underwent critical political, economic, social and military shifts that significantly influenced its domestic and foreign policy strategies. Regionally, Iran faced unprecedented challenges, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, prompting a reevaluation of its traditional geopolitical strategies amid diminishing influence. On the international stage, Iran’s diplomatic relations with both global and regional powers experienced notable shifts, impacting its strategic leverage and laying the groundwork for potential implications as it moves into 2025. This section of the ASR explores the nuances of Iranian developments across both domestic and regional frameworks, encompassing key topics such as the return of the “reformists” to the Iranian political landscape, Iran’s economic situation under Pezeshkian’s government, assessing Iran’s military capabilities amid developments and crises and fulfilling campaign promises to Iran’s minorities, which pose policy challenges for the new government. Additionally, it examines Iran’s policy toward Arab countries with a comparison of Pezeshkian and Raisi’s policies on militia support in conflict zones, the resilience of Gulf-Iran relations amid testing circumstances, and cautious, calculated progress in Iran’s rapprochement with Egypt and Sudan. Furthermore, it discusses Iran’s relations with regional and international powers, including the future of nuclear talks under Pezeshkian, the future of Iran’s relations with the Eastern Bloc, the US-EU position on Iran in 2025, the continued Iran-Türkiye conflict in the Caucasus, Iraq and Syria, and developments in Yemen. According to the ASR, Iran will continue its rapprochement with Arab countries to avoid returning to tensions or to seek a new foothold after losing Syria. In addition, the report argues that Iran will persist with its “Look to the East” policy in 2025.
