If the Kremlin is to be believed, the Iskander-1000 missile can radically maneuver at high speeds during its terminal phase, all while launching decoys that will likely stymie any air defense system arrayed against it.
Throughout the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia has learned valuable lessons about conflict in the 21st century—and has begun adapting its forces to the new era of warfare. After nearly three years of warfare, the lethality of Russia’s Armed Forces has increased, despite claims to the contrary by Western sources. Indeed, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte tacitly acknowledged this strength in January, noting that the Kremlin could produce more materiel in three months than all of NATO’s defense-industrial base could in a single year.
Adaptation in warfare is key. During peacetime, little adaptation occurs. In the heat of war, however, the science, technology, and tactics that undergird warmaking change rapidly. The side that adapts fastest to those changes wins. And while NATO is merely a proxy to the Ukraine conflict, Russia is a direct participant—and has learned from it accordingly.
Following the rapid changes in territory in the first weeks of the conflict, the war has largely solidified into an attritional battle in Ukraine’s east. As the United States and its NATO partners have supplied weapons to Ukraine, Kyiv has done the best it can to deploy those assets against Moscow in novel ways. But fundamentally, the dynamics of the conflict favor Russia: it has pinned Ukraine into an attrition war that matches Russia’s larger military against Ukraine’s smaller one.
What’s more, Russia has combined its classic attritional warfare methodology with mass encirclement campaigns directed against specific targets in Ukraine. Incidentally, this was the same strategy that Stalin used to defeat Hitler’s army in the Second World War (to be clear, this parallel is merely one of military tactics and strategy, and has no broader implications for the ideology of either side).
Russia’s Combat Systems are Impressive
In this morass, Russia is innovating new combat systems and strategies that are disrupting the carefully laid balance between Russia and NATO in Europe. Indeed, now Russia is developing—and deploying—systems that completely upend NATO’s conventional defense strategy for wider Europe. It should be obvious that NATO must quickly innovate countermeasures and new capabilities in order to restore lost deterrence, thanks largely to the way that NATO has exacerbated the Ukraine War with its seemingly limitless aid.
One of the many ways that Russia has advanced, thanks largely because of its experiences in Ukraine, is with the new Iskander-1000 ballistic missile system. The Iskander-1000 gets its name from the fact that it has a range of up to 1,000 kilometers (about 621 miles). The system itself is an evolution from the long-serving Iskander-M system. The Russians claim that on top of having longer range, the new Iskander-1000 is more precise, too.
The Iskander-Ms was designed to evade NATO missile defenses and provide both conventional and nuclear strike capabilities. Iskander-1000s take these capabilities and enhance them in every way (or so the Russians say). Beginning in the early summer months of 2024, two years into the Ukraine War, Russia began showcasing the Iskander-1000 in Russian military parades celebrating the 78th anniversary of the Kapustin Yar missile test site.
Understanding the Iskander-1000
Russia’s new missile shares many similarities to the older 9M723 Iskander-M in appearance. But there are, of course, differences from its older sibling. For example, Iskander-1000 features an increased solid-fuel charge, a newer engine, and better flight control and guidance systems. All these new capabilities bleed into giving the new missile its potent extended range—approximately double that of the Iskander-M.
While many have understandably focused on the Iskander-1000s impressive extended range, its precision should also be a point of concern among Western military analysts. Moscow’s scientists imbued the Iskander-1000 with new autonomous inertial guidance system (INS), supplemented by satellite navigation provided by Russia’s indigenous rival to America’s Global Positioning System (GPS), the GLONASS system. On top of all that, the Russians have programmed the guidance system to use radar during the final stages of the Iskander-1000s flight, giving it an incredible circular error probability (CEP) of around five meters (16 feet).
In other words, this weapon rarely misses. Though, again, that’s according to our Russian friends. And they’d never exaggerate or lie about their capabilities, right?
Taking Russia’s Arms Seriously
To be clear, the Russians have proven throughout the Ukraine War that the West underestimates them at their own peril. If the Kremlin is to be believed, the Iskander-1000 missile can radically maneuver at high speeds during its terminal phase, all while launching decoys that will likely stymie any air defense system arrayed against it. So, perhaps we should actually take the Russians at their word this time that they’ve got a system that completely upends the regional security dynamics.
With a range of 1,000 kilometers, the Iskander-1000 can reach targets deep inside NATO territory safely from Russian soil—or from the Russian-controlled enclave in Kaliningrad. Oh, and the missile seems ideally tailored to knock out the vaunted F-16 warplanes that NATO handed over to Ukraine.
Whether or not this system is overhyped, the fact remains that Russian arms have thus far been effective in the Ukraine War. In spite of their own problems, they are steadily grinding the Ukrainians down, even with the fire hose of aid Kyiv has gained from NATO’s collective arsenals.
Now that Russia appears to have the upper hand in Ukraine—and with the new Trump administration in the United States seeking a more accommodative stance with Moscow—the weakened and isolated European members of NATO could find themselves facing a stronger and angrier Russia than they did before the war began.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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