A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
The strategy team at Scotiabank interviewed an expert of U.S. policy regarding the implementation of tariffs by the U.S.,
“Yesterday, we hosted a call with Mr. Frank Kelly, founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors. Mr. Kelly began his career at the White House as a writer for President Reagan and went on to serve in Reagan’s Office of Political Affairs … According to Mr. Kelly, a ‘grand bargain’ with China may be more likely than people think as opportunities for further geopolitical alignment between the U.S. and China are plausible in exchange for lower tariffs in certain sectors … Canada seems relatively better positioned than Mexico in the tariff negotiations, as Mexico needs to offer realistic solutions to immigration and cartels. If this is the case, and Canada is exempt from tariffs, we could see a relief rally in the CAD. Still, the upside could be capped by a widening interest rate spread with the U.S. … Sectors that may be exempt from tariffs include Oil and Autos. The devil is in the details, especially with Autos given the highly integrated supply chain within the USMCA. However, and according to Mr. Kelly, strengthening North America’s auto industry and limiting China’s footprint in Mexico seems to be a priority for this administration.”
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Scotiabank’s uranium analyst Orest Wowkodaw also had an expert interview to summarize,
“We hosted an expert call with Nicolas F. Carter, Executive Vice President of Uranium at UxC, LLC, a leading industry source of publications, data services, market research, and analysis, on the global nuclear fuel cycle markets, to discuss the global market outlook for both uranium and nuclear power. Our key takeaways are as follows: (1) nuclear energy and by extension, uranium demand, are expected to substantially grow in the years ahead, (2) uranium supply remains challenged and requires the development of several new projects, (3) near-term fundamentals are stronger than spot prices suggest, and (4) US tariffs on Canadian uranium appear unlikely. Overall, given the strong fundamental outlook for both nuclear and uranium, we view the update as positive. We rate CCO-T, DML-T, and NXE-T all Sector Outperform. We view the recent AI/data centre related weakness in the equities as an attractive buying opportunity.”
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RBC head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft described the changing U.S. policy towards OPEC,
“As the OPEC decision makers prepare for the upcoming JMMC meeting in the wake of President Trump’s demand for more oil, calculating the size and duration of sanctions outages could prove difficult for the producer group with the White House seemingly in deal making mode. Hence, we see the continued attraction of sticking with the managed care production agreement and taper timeline until there is more policy certainty. In the case of Russia, the 11th hour Biden energy sanctions look set to remain in place until a deal is reached. As ending the war is a clear priority for the White House, the stickiness of those sanctions will hinge on the willingness of Kyiv and Moscow to make concessions. Similarly, concluding a diplomatic agreement with Iran to curb its nuclear activities appears to be a Trump 2.0 goal. The Iran hawks who publicly endorsed regime change are absent from this new administration and have had their Secret Service security details removed. The JD Vance wing, which seeks to scale back costly American overseas military and financial commitments, seems ascendant”
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Diversion: “Suspects in Recent Murders Are Two Young Computer Nerds That Reportedly Have Ties to a Techno-Cult” – Gizmodo