The initial weeks of Donald Trump’s return to the White House have irrefutably confirmed the reinstated President is intent on rapidly advancing what he perceives to be in the United States interests through the exercise of raw American power unhindered by diplomatic niceties. America First means what is says on the tin and if that upsets America’s allies, as well as its adversaries, no matter.
Trump’s doctrine is that allied dependency on America’s goodwill, its enormous economic and military clout and, in some cases, its financial and military supports, in navigating a troubled world will force allies to adapt and better address issues that matter to him. Meanwhile confusing and discombobulating adversaries, both international and domestic, can only be beneficial. To a greater extent than during his first presidency Trump has re-emerged for the next four years as the politician central to global developments, as well as America’s domestic politics. Last time his presidency was perceived by many as an anomaly. This time it is the new normal.
Ireland is a small player on the world stage, despite some of its politicians having illusions of grandeur, and its new government is struggling to come to terms with Trump’s second coming. Coincidently, entering office the week of Trump’s inauguration, it is substantially the previous government reconstituted by the same two major parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Both Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Michael Martin and Tanaiste (Deputy Prime Minister), Foreign & Defense Minister, Simon Harris have since the government’s formation been kvetching over the possible consequential impact on Ireland of the Trump administration.
No European country is more exposed to US tariffs than Ireland. Ireland’s corporate tax regime and financial incentives have resulted in a significant number of major US multinationals locating in Ireland, to both use it as a gateway into EU markets and to house their global profits. These companies play an enormous role in contributing to Irish public finances, employment, public services and a healthy balance of payments surplus. In 2023 Ireland had a trade surplus of €31 billion with the US to which exports by Irish based US multinationals substantially contributed. A mixture of US imposed tariffs and corporate tax changes could significantly upend Ireland’s economic well being and financial stability.
To offset conflict with the Trump administration both Harris and Martin have been talking up the “special relationship between Ireland and America”, long enduring historical and commercial connections, the employment creation role of Irish companies in the US, social and cultural similarities between the two countries and Trumps own connection to Ireland through the successful Trump International Golf Links and Hotel in Doonbeg, County Clare. Much reliance is also being placed on the hope for traditional friendly March 17 St Patricks Day engagement in the White House between Trump and Martin and Ireland benefiting, as an EU member, from the EU persuading Trump of the positive benefits of a co-operative trans Atlantic relationship.
In January I discussed the Irish government’s obsessive criticism of Israel since October 7, 2023, its deepening relationship with Iran, its recognition as a reward for terrorism in May 2024 of the State of Palestine and its failure to address escalating antisemitism in Ireland ( “Trump can’t ignore Irelands hostility towards Israel” Jan 7, 2025). In early January concern developed within the Irish government as to how Trump may react to what can be properly perceived as Ireland’s hostility towards Israel and its acting contrary to US interests and attempts have since been made to engage in a reset.
On January 16 Martin announced Ireland’s “endorsement” of the Global Guidelines for Countering Antisemitism and of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliances working definition of antisemitism, emphasizing each to be “non- legally binding”. In the same week the new program for government committed to “give effect to the working definition and to implement the EU Declaration on Fostering Jewish Life in Europe”. While these developments are welcome, it remains unclear what effective specific action the Irish government intends to take to implement measures that prior to 2025 it would not even facilitate be discussed in the Dáil (the primary chamber of the Irish Parliament). To date they resemble a cake with attractive icing of uncertain taste.
How palatable Israel related provisions contained in Ireland’s new program for government are to the Trump administration and to members of the US Congress remains to the seen. Published just prior to the January ceasefire with Hamas, under the heading “ Middle East” it asserts the Irish government will
• None Continue to work with partners in the region to advocate for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the return of all hostages and a surge of humanitarian aid.
* Will also work with partners to help rebuild Gaza as soon as practicable
• None Seek to grow the international coalition of countries supporting a two-state solution through recognition of the State of Palestine and continue to advocate for internationally sponsored political negotiations on achieving a peaceful and secure Israel and Palestine.
• None Continue to seek the application of International Law and justice to all sides in the current conflict through the international court system.
• None Advocate for a meaningful interpretation of Israel’s human rights obligations under the EU-Israel association agreement at European Commission level and continue to advocate a review of the EU Trade Agreement.
• None Progress legislation prohibiting goods from Occupied Palestinian Territories following the July 2024 International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion.
• None Continue to oppose and condemn Hamas and other groups which bring terror and destruction to their own people and others.
• None Support UNRWA and advocate within Europe for increased support.
• None Work with partners in the EU to introduce further sanctions against illegal settler activity in the West Bank.
While some of the content is unobjectionable, it is in its obtuse phraseology and omissions that serious issues arise.
The pledge to work with partners “ to help rebuild Gaza as soon as practicable” doesn’t explain what is meant by “ practicable”, who are the envisaged partners, what funding Ireland will donate and entirely ignores that any such “ rebuild”, while Hamas continues to govern parts of Gaza, will result in terrorist tunnels being reconstructed, Hamas and other terrorist groups re-arming and Hamas inevitably initiating further conflict, death and destruction. To date, unlike the US, Ireland has not said Hamas can play no future role in Gaza’s governance.
The program doubles down on the fantasy that declaring recognition of the State of Palestine at a time when Palestinian factions are bitterly divided, there is no single Palestinian government in control of a territory with readily identifiable borders and Hamas and other fanatical Islamic terrorist groups remain dedicated to Israel’s destruction in some way contributes to a two state solution as opposed to encouraging terrorism.
The pledge “ to continue to seek the application of international law “ to all sides” is a disingenuous promise to continue to engage in lawfare before the ICC and the ICJ against Israel, including to progress Ireland’s application to the ICJ to broaden the long enduring international law definition of genocide to wrongly criminalize Israeli conduct in the war Hamas initiated and has continued for over 15 months.
The reference to the EU-Israel Trade Agreement is a brazen promise to continue Ireland and Spains almost 12 month campaign at EU level to undermine Israel/ EU trade relations
The promise to progress Ireland’s Occupied Territories Bill, is a promise to criminalize any individual, business or company that imports into or sells goods in Ireland produced or sold by any Israeli or Israeli business or company located in East Jerusalem or on the West Bank (Judea and Samaria). Originally an opposition measure, the Bill was embraced by both Martin and Harris in the lead in to Ireland’s November general election to appease anti Israel campaigners who advocate BDS. Each originally promised it would apply to both goods and services but the program excludes services and the Bill is to be redrafted. Intended to ameliorate the impact of the measure on US multinationals, this exclusion still risks the Bill creating US legal difficulties for US companies based in Ireland and, if enacted, will violate EU law. This promised measure scandalously reflects Nazi anti Jewish boycott laws of the 1930s.
While stating the Irish government will continue to oppose and condemn Hamas and other groups, it is noteworthy that most of the Irish government’s critical focus for over 16 months has targeted Israel both domestically and in every international forum in which Ireland is represented. Extraordinarily, the program makes no explicit reference to Hezbollah despite it placing the lives of Irish UNIFIL troops at risk since October 7, 2023, by firing thousands of missiles from Southern Lebanon into Israel, building tunnel complexes there right under the noses of UNIFIL observers, flagrantly violating UN Resolution 1701 and murdering an Irish UNIFIL soldier in 2022.
The programs “ Middle East” content obsesses on Israel and contains no mention of Iran. In the spring of 2024 the Iranian ambassador to Ireland was welcomed as an honored guest at the annual party conferences of both Irish government parties while Israel’s ambassador was deliberately excluded, in July 2024 Ireland’s President Micheal D Higgins, who since October 2023 repetitively targeted Israel for criticism, sent a fawning letter of congratulations to Iran’s new President praising Iran’s crucial role in “peacefully” resolving disputes and in September 2024 Ireland reopened its embassy in Tehran, having closed it in 2012. Consistent with the Irish governments narrative since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, the program make no reference to Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism across the Middle East, its direct attacks on Israel, its much publicized calls for Israel’s destruction, Iran’s nuclear program, its promotion of its so called Axis of Resistance and venomous opposition to the two state solution Ireland advocates. Also absent is any reference to the Houthis, the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea, the disastrous civil war and spreading famine in Sudan and the malign role of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon’s economic collapse and political difficulties
Expressing Ireland’s continuing support for UNRWA, the program ignores UNRWA complicity in the October 7, 2023, Hamas atrocities, the use by Hamas of UNRWA facilities throughout Gaza, the impossibility of UNRWA staff in Gaza not knowing about the construction of an extensive terrorist tunnel network both under and adjacent to UNRWA facilities and their use for holding hostages captive. Also ignored is UNRWAs role in perpetuating Israeli/ Palestinian conflict and in creating a multi generational financially dependent Palestinian population incapable of competent and financially accountable self governance and personal self reliance.
To any outsider looking in, including the Trump administration, it is clear that the Irish government presents as closer to Tehran than Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. As the new Trump administration bedded down events in Ireland undermining the reset included the following:
Despite opposition from Irish Jewish communal leaders, resulting from his repetitive unbalanced criticism of Israel and dismissal of concerns about escalating antisemitism in Ireland as a distraction of Israeli propaganda, Ireland’s President, Micheal D Higgins delivered the main address at Dublin’s Holocaust Memorial Day event. Invited to do so by a government sponsored NGO, Holocaust Education Ireland (HEI), he used the event to imply an equivalence between the Holocaust and events in Gaza, depict Israel as not fighting a war but as exacting revenge for October 7, 2023, on the population of Gaza, ignored the aprox 16,000 missiles targeting Israel launched from there and the fact the war could have ended long ago had Hamas released all the hostages.
A silent dignified protest by some members of the Jewish community standing with their backs to the podium as he spoke, resulted in their being forced to leave the event and one, Lior Tibet, a female Jewish expert on the Holocaust and university lecturer being violently ejected by security personnel under the direction of HEI. Through the kerfuffle Higgins continued to read his script and lacked the insight to verbally intervene and attempt calm things down.
Higgins narrative coincided with that of Harris and Martin in portraying Israel as the aggressor, each in the preceding months having accused Israel of committing genocide and engaging in collective punishment, while Harris specialized in accusing Israel of deliberately killing children. In the controversy that followed, Harris predictably defended Higgins speech saying the President “ had rightly mentioned the conflict in the Middle East,” ignoring that he had mentioned no other conflict. Whether the Guinness Book of Records will in the future recognize as a record breaking achievement the unprecedented expulsion of Jewish attendees at a Holocaust Memorial event in Dublin remains to be seen.
The next day, an article by Martin was published by the Irish Times reflecting on the lessons of the Holocaust and the need to combat antisemitism and he also attended the Commemoration marking the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz in Poland. A few days later the perception of genuine interest and concern Martin intended to publicly portray was undermined when he admitted in an interview that he attended the Auschwitz event to dispel the impression that Ireland is antisemitic not simply to commemorate the lives lost in Auschwitz.
The newly elected Dáil in its first meetings after government formation replicated its predecessor by obsessing on Israeli/ Palestinian conflict and continuing to demonize Israel. In an early February debate only three out of twenty four speakers made a passing ritual reference to the hostages still held in Gaza. Enactment of the Occupied Territories Bill was the main focus, Iran was not mentioned while Trump’s novel Gaza proposals were trenchantly criticized.
Harris, concerned about blowback from Trump, abandoned some of his past anti Israel bombast and resorted to more moderated language but in reality little had changed. He confirmed Ireland’s continuing funding of UNRWA and, while supporting the Palestinian Authority resuming a governance role in Gaza, said nothing about Hamas’s involvement, if any. He rejected any attempt at demographic or territorial change in Gaza and failed to distinguish between facilitating lawful voluntary choices Gaza’s residents might make to live elsewhere as opposed to wrongful forcible expulsion. He doubled down on Ireland’s support for a two state solution while omitting all reference to Iran and Hamas’s opposition to any such solution. The impossibility of any Israeli government any time soon agreeing to implement such “ solution” in the aftermath of the Hamas initiated war, atrocities and abductions was not something he considered. He confirmed the government’s commitment to the discriminatory antisemitic Occupied Territories Bill and to continue Ireland’s participation in the ICC and the ICJ cases taken against Israel.
Two days after the Dáil Debate Ireland joined with 79 other states in condemning Trump imposed sanctions on the ICC. The next day as world leaders condemned Hamas for the emaciated condition of three hostages just released Martin and Harris voiced no criticism. They did, however, find time to effusively praise the Irish rugby team on X for its victory over Scotland. A few days later, after Trump ended US funding of UNRWA, Harris announced a further donation to UNRWA of €20 million, bringing its Irish funding up to a total of €58 million inclusive of 2023 and 2024.
Focused on the Trump administration’s America First trade and tax policies, anxious to ameliorate any detrimental impact on Ireland and concerned by damage done by its hostility to Israel, the Irish government is planning a charm offensive in the US to coincide with the week of celebrations generated by St Patricks Day on March 17. While Michael Martin awaits the traditional St Patricks Day invitation to the White House from President Trump, arrangements are being made for six Irish government ministers to visit the US that week and participate in a variety of events across the US. Meanwhile, there are reports of US based Irish diplomats engaged in a game of smoke and mirrors, seeking meetings with Jewish American organizations and members of Congress to distract from Ireland’s anti Israeli hostility and to highlight the recently announced government decisions on tackling antisemitism. The Irish government has also announced the creation of a US based Strategic Economic Advisory Panel and a separate Irish based Consultative Group on Irish Trade Policy to assist it addressing the ill winds blowing out of Washington.
How President Trump views Ireland’s obsessive criticism of Israel and its allegations of Israel committing genocide, resulting in Israel’s closure of its Dublin embassy, and also Ireland’s bizarre embrace of Iran is so far unknown. Irish diplomats are working hard behind the scenes to deflect any St Patricks Day related controversy. It remains to be seen whether Trump at the presentation to him in the White House of the traditional bowl of shamrock will be critical of the Irish government’s anti Israel stance or whether he will ignore it as largely irrelevant to the outcome of events in the Middle East. With Trump’s unpredictability and tendency to disrupt, who knows?