Syria at the center of Israel’s strategy to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its arsenal

During the two months of the war in Lebanon, Syria became an extension of the front opened by Israel against Hezbollah. The Israeli army intensified its strikes against Hezbollah’s leaders, ammunition warehouses and smuggling routes, in order to prevent it from sending weapons and reinforcements to Lebanon. Syria continues to play a pivotal role in the ceasefire agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday, November 27.

While the Israeli army estimates that it has destroyed around three-quarters of Hezbollah’s stockpile of medium and short-range rockets, as well as a significant proportion of its missiles, the challenge now is to prevent the Shiite group from rebuilding its arsenal, with the help of Iran. Under the terms of the agreement, Lebanon has undertaken to tighten border controls to prevent the entry of illegal weapons. In the event of the Lebanese army failing to meet its obligations, Israel has obtained the right to act from the United States, in a letter of guarantees signed on the sidelines of the agreement.

Hezbollah’s entrenchment in Syria has been a source of concern for the Israelis since the outbreak, in March 2011, of a protest movement that turned into an armed insurrection. President Bashar al-Assad’s power has held out – at the cost of destroying much of his own country – only with the help of his three allies: Iran, Hezbollah and Russia.

‘Offensive surgical strikes’

Anxiously watching the Lebanese armed movement, with logistical support from Iran, develop a platform for moving military equipment and men towards its Lebanese strongholds, Israel has been striking freely at its enemies in Syria ever since. Israeli raids against Hezbollah in Syria went from occasional strikes to a new level after the Shiite party opened a “support front” against Palestinian Hamas on October 8, 2023, the day after the deadly October 7 attack.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH) has recorded 150 Israeli strikes in Syria since January 2024. Over the past year, many high-ranking Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials have been killed by Israel on Syrian territory. At the end of September, during the transition to open warfare in Lebanon, strikes in Syria increased again. “There were many more convoys circulating in Syria, transporting weapons to Lebanon. These were all targets, to cut off supplies. This is not going to end with the ceasefire, although there will no doubt be a drop in intensity,” said a diplomatic source.

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