Tattered Syrian flag and Assad poster in Aleppo on Dec. 5. Photo: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP via Getty Images
Several different Syrian rebel factions were closing in on Damascus Saturday as President Bashar al-Assad’s forces continued to collapse around the country. Why it matters: Rapid advances by the rebels over the last 24 hours have significantly increased the chances of the Assad regime collapsing, Israeli and U.S. officials tell me — a stunning development after 14 years of civil war.
State of play: The different rebel factions have been moving toward Damascus, Syria’s capital, from the north, the south and the east.
• North of Damascus, the rebels led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) — an Islamist group backed by Turkey — have entered the city of Homs and are fighting with the Syrian military.
• South of Damascus, Free Syrian Army forces have taken over the city of Daraa — the birthplace of the 2011 revolution — and moved north toward the capital.
• A rebel group has also taken control of the city of Quneitra southwest of Damascus, near the border with Israel.
• Kurdish forces have taken control of the city of Deir ez-Zor in northeast Syria and on the strategic Al-Bukamal border crossing with Iraq, which has been used in the past to transfer weapons and forces for to pro-Iranian militias in Syria.
• More than 1,500 Syrian soldiers have left Syria to Iraq and surrendered their weapons to the Iraqi military, according to the Iraqi state news agency and videos on social media.
• According to some reports, Syrian regime forces have also abandoned the Al-Mazzeh military airport on the outskirts of Damascus.
What they’re saying: “Things are moving very fast and there is a domino effect. Whoever can joins the fight. There is going to be fighting in Damascus soon,” an Israeli intelligence official said.
• The Syrian Ministry of Defense said in a statement that Syrian military forces are still fighting across the country and claimed reports about the rebel advances are false.
President-elect Trump, who is in Paris for the reopening of the Notre Dame cathedral, wrote on Truth Social that opposition forces outside Damascus are “obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad.”
• Trump wrote that Russia can’t stop the rebels because it is tied up in Ukraine, despite spending years protecting the Assad regime.
• “Now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them,” he added.
• Trump stressed: “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Behind the scenes: Iranian supreme leader special envoy Ali Larijani visited Damascus on Friday and met with Assad, according to Iranian media.
• Israeli officials say they see reluctance on the part of Iran and Russia to significantly help the Assad regime.
In recent days, Israel has conveyed messages to several rebel groups in Syria, including HTS, warning them that if they move close to the border in a way that violates the Israeli-Syrian truce agreement, the IDF will take action against them, two Israeli officials said.
• Israeli officials said they are concerned about the deterioration of the situation on the border with Syria and the potential takeover of the area by extremist Islamists.
• On Saturday, the IDF said armed rebels attacked the position of a UN force of observers near the village of al-Khader on the border between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights.
• The IDF said its forces helped in repelling the attack. “We are in contact with rebel groups to make sure the border stays quiet. We have our channels and our mediators and we are sending them messages,” an Israeli official said.
What to watch: Shortly after the attack on the UN position, the joint war rooms of the rebels issued a statement stressing all rebel groups are committed to protecting international organizations in Syria.
This story is developing. Please check back for updates.