Abstract
In 2022, India’s population overtook China’s which itself concurrently peaked. In that epochal demographic shadow, the 2023 BRICS Summit Declaration inaugurally included a clause around cooperation in the area of the ‘dynamics of population age structure change’, since these can pose challenges as well as opportunities. This is timely for the BRICS and global development since today even the average lower-middle-income country is home to 6% of citizens aged 65 plus—just one per cent below the 7% of population threshold defined as ‘ageing’. Economic risks posed by population ageing include the need to elevate the level and share of human and economic resources to ‘unproductive’ areas such as aged care and the need for elevated productivity per worker from fewer workers by population share just to maintain constant output per capita let alone increase it. In developing countries those requirements can be hard to realise, given limited resources and a compressed preparation span, presenting a heightened stagnation risk. Drawing from Johnston (2023), this chapter explores the dynamics and economic policy challenges of demographic change in China in the context of the five BRICS countries and the 2023 BRICS Declaration. It further also elaborates the unique case study that is offered by China following the One Child Policy and discusses possible areas of population structure and development cooperation among developing countries and the significance for global development beyond.
Notes
- 1.
With Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates having joined the BRICS grouping in January 2024, the group is now more diverse in economic demography context with most of these countries being demographically relatively young, and United Arab Emirates also being high-income country.
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Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
-
Faculty of the International and Political Studies, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland
Armando Aliu
Appendices
Appendix A: Selected Population-Ageing Related Policy Initiatives, China (1982–2020)
|
Year of issuance |
Policy/Issue |
Description |
|---|---|---|
|
1982 |
Committee on ageing was formed to participate in the First World Assembly on Ageing |
The first group of officials dedicated to ageing issues |
|
1983 |
National Working Commission on Ageing formed |
Commission was charged with identifying important issues and laying the foundation for national ageing-related architecture and implementing or overseeing the related work |
|
1991 |
UN and China adopt the Principles for Older Persons |
On 16 December 1991, the UN General Assembly adopted the UN Principles for Older Persons (Resolution 46/91) |
|
1994 |
Seven-Year Development Outline on China’s Work on Aging (1994–2000) |
Proposed the general objectives of China’s work on ageing, defined by ageing-related items for national economic and social development |
|
1996 |
Law of Safeguarding Rights and Interests of the Elderly |
The state is responsible for establishing an old-age insurance system, safeguarding the basic livelihoods of the elderly (the first legal recognition of elderly rights) |
|
1999 |
Year of the Elderly; China reaches ageing milestone |
The General Assembly (Resolution 47/5) decided to observe the year 1999 as the International Year of Older Persons—the same year, China’s share of population aged 60 and above reached 10%, which is the threshold of ‘ageing’ |
|
1999 |
World Health Organisation proposed ‘Active Ageing’ |
Policy framework for informing discussion and action plan formulation that promotes healthy and active ageing. By definition, ‘active ageing is the process of optimising opportunities for health, participation and security to enhance quality of life as people age’. † |
|
2000 |
The Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and the State Council Decision on Strengthening Work on Ageing |
Safeguard elderly rights and interests; develop the service sector for the elderly; ensure related funding and infrastructure; carry out advocacy for the elderly |
|
2001 |
Outline of the 10th Five-Year Plan for China’s Work on Aging (2001–2005) |
Establish an urban–rural old-age security system; establish a community-based elderly management and service system; expand the activities for the elderly; advocacy; establish a normal investment mechanism for work on ageing; and improve the overall ageing-related system |
|
2001 |
Decision to Strengthen the Work on Ageing issued by Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council |
A policy system built on the Elderly Law, guided by the five-year plan goals for ageing and socioeconomic development, with emphasis on active response to population ageing. The system covers policy-making of elderly welfare in various aspects such as social security, elderly health, services, education, social participation, and age-friendly environment construction |
|
2006 |
The 11th Five-Year Plan for China’s Work on Aging (2006–2010) |
Establish an elderly social security system compatible with the economy and society, and as with other security systems; establish a comprehensive system of policies and regulations on ageing; and actively promote the construction of elderly-friendly infrastructure |
|
2011 |
The 12th Five-Year Plan for China’s Work on Aging (2011–2015) |
Establish a basic strategic framework centring on ageing; improve the urban–rural social old-age security system; improve basic elderly medical care system; enhance home-based and community-based care networks; promote planning and construction standards for elderly-friendly infrastructure; and increase amenities for elderly culture, education, and fitness activities |
|
2013 |
Opinions on Supporting Development of Elderly Services Industry of Health Services |
Opinions issued by the State Council which called for deeper all-round investment in direct and indirect areas that underpin the development of a modern and sustainable elderly services industry and related health services |
|
2015 |
Opinions on Encouraging Private Capital to Participate in the Development of Pension Services |
Opened the aged care sector to greater private investment, including foreign investors. Marked the beginning of a greater role for private investors in areas such as operating residential homes, pension funds, and establishing links between the medical sector and medical training sector and aged care services |
|
2016 |
13th Five-Year Plan includes a section on ‘actively responding to population ageing’ |
Emphasise the need to shift to new growth drivers; optimise human capital development; expand the scientific and innovative frontier in China; and actively respond to population ageing |
|
2017 |
The 13th Five-Year Plan for National Work on Ageing and Elderly Care System Construction |
Improve the multifaceted, inclusive, fair, and sustainable social security system; improve home care, community support, institutional backup, and medical nursing care integration; enable institutional structure to facilitate government and market roles; and create a social environment that is congenial to work on ageing and old-age care system |
|
2017 |
Several Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Fully Liberalising the Elderly Service Market and Improving the Quality of Elderly Service |
Establish a subsidy system for financially strapped and incapacitated seniors; develop home-based old-age care services; enforce the migration of household registration of the elderly who move to their children’s place; promote the construction of elderly-friendly communities and cities; further expand coverage of legal aid; and increase integration of medical and nursing care |
|
2019 |
Opinions on Promoting the Development of Aged-care Services |
Comprehensive agenda for advancing every aspect of aged care, from staffing to granting land for age-related infrastructure, and bond-related and foreign investment in pension-related financial services |
|
2019 |
The mid- and long-term national plan for actively responding to population ageing (November) |
States the related challenges and opportunities; a proactive national response is a requirement for achieving high-quality development and for maintaining social harmony and stability in this context |
|
2020 |
Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Aged Products Industry |
Encourage all economic sectors to be innovative and productive in sectors of importance to older populations, e.g., mobility-related technology products, healthcare products, and related communication-facilitating technologies |
|
2021 |
14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) (March), and the 14th Five-Year Plan for the National Ageing Industry Development and Elderly Care Service System (Dec) |
Further promote ageing-related infrastructure, including smart products that facilitate real-time usage data and equipment that helps with elder safety. China will also work toward creating an integrated nursing home and health care facilities service. A focus on disabled elders living with the least means was announced |
|
2022 |
Report of the State Council on the Progress of Strengthening and Promoting Aging Work (Aug.) |
China’s highest policy-making body, the State Council, published a comprehensive review of preparations for intensive population ageing, with recommendations for how to improve progress |
|
2022 |
20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (October) |
Promise to continue proactively responding to population, including via constructing a family-friendly society that may boost birth rates |
Appendix B: Medium- and Long-term Plan for the State to Actively Respond to Population Ageing (2019)
|
Goal |
Agenda |
|---|---|
|
1. Consolidate the social wealth reserves to cope with the aging of the population |
1.1. Expand the whole, optimise the structure, improve efficiency; and adapt economic development to the aging of the population |
|
1.2. Improve the system of national income distribution and optimise distribution patterns among government, enterprises, and residents; steadily increase the old-age wealth reserves; and create a fairer and more sustainable social security system |
|
|
1.3. Continue to improve the well-being of all people |
|
|
2. Improve effective labour supply in the context of an aging population |
2.1. Improve the overall quality of human resources by improving the quality of population policies and improving the quality of the labour force pipeline, and by building a lifelong learning system for the elderly to continue to learn |
|
2.2. Promote the development and utilisation of human resources; achieve higher-quality and full employment; and ensure a sufficient total level and quality of human resources is actively responding to the aging of the population |
|
|
3. Create a high-quality supply system for elder services and products |
3.1. Actively promote the construction of a healthy China; establish and improve a comprehensive and ongoing health service system for the elderly including health education, preventive health care, disease diagnosis and treatment, rehabilitation care, long-term care, and hospice care |
|
3.2. Improve the multi-level elderly care service system based on the home, community reliance, fully developed institutions, and organically integrated medical care; expand the supply of products and services suitable for the elderly in multiple channels and fields and improve the quality of products and services |
|
|
4. Strengthen scientific and technological innovation capabilities in response to the aging of the population |
4.1. Implement the innovation-driven development strategy; take technological innovation as the first driving force and strategic support for actively responding to population ageing |
|
4.2. Comprehensively improve the intelligence level of the national economic industrial system |
|
|
4.3. Improve the level of technology and informatisation of services for the elderly |
|
|
4.4. Increase health technology support for the elderly |
|
|
4.5. Strengthen research and development and application of assistive technologies for the elderly |
|
|
5. Build a social environment for providing for the elderly, filial piety, and respect for the elderly |
5.1. Strengthen the legal environment in response to the aging of the population and protect the legitimate rights and interests of the elderly |
|
5.2. Build a family support system, build an elderly-friendly society, and form a good atmosphere for the participation of the elderly, family, society, and the government |
- Source Government of China (2022)
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Johnston, L.A. (2024). The BRICS are ‘Getting Old Before Getting Rich’: Trends and Prospects. In: Aliu, A. (eds) Complexity Thinking and China’s Demography Within and Beyond Mainland China. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0172-8_9
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