Trump win shakes up U.S. and its role in the world
He’s back: Donald Trump secured enough Electoral College votes to emerge victorious following Tuesday’s historic American election, giving the 45th and now 47th president what he called an “unprecedented and powerful mandate” to carry out his policies in the months to come. With his win, Trump also becomes the first U.S. president with a felony conviction and just the second ever (joining Grover Cleveland of the Gilded Age) to return to the White House after an election loss.
What mattered to voters: Immigration and the economy were the top concerns heading into the polls. The Trump campaign promised dramatic changes on both fronts, including mass deportations using National Guard troops in an effort that could forcibly remove an estimated one million people per year, according to his running mate, JD Vance. Trump also promised travel bans, as in 2016, for people from countries including Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, as well as Gaza. And just like in 2016, Trump has promised to continue building a wall along the southern border with Mexico, an effort that was ultimately slowed by a lack of federal funding.
With wins in Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia, the election also handed Republicans control of the Senate. As a result, few observers expect significant obstacles to most of Trump’s plans, and a conservative 6-3 majority in the Supreme Court further reinforces these projections.
One X factor in Trump’s power forecast: Control in the House of Representatives is still undecided as of early Wednesday, with around 50 races yet to be called, according to the Associated Press.
Another win for Trump: At least two ongoing criminal prosecutions of the president-elect are likely to end, as he will control the Department of Justice. Those include pending federal cases regarding his retention of classified information after leaving office, and his efforts to block the 2020 election. As one lawyer from Protect Democracy told Reuters, just because Trump will almost certainly shut those cases down “won’t mean it was the right thing.”
The future of Ukraine? Trump’s stated desire to broker a quick deal between the leaders of Kyiv and Moscow likely means Russia keeps most if not all of its invaded territory, predicts Matthew Savill of the London-based Royal United Services Institute. And ahead of Inauguration Day, “Russia will see [Trump’s win] as an incentive to keep on pressing home its advantage in numbers.” President Biden still has more than $5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority for Ukraine; so the weeks ahead could see a significant portion of that pledged or distributed—though precisely how and in what form remains unclear.
As for NATO and Europe, both face “a series of compounding problems,” Savill’s RUSI colleague Ed Arnold writes. The alliance “will have to put all its energy into keeping the organization together in close to its current form, shifting the focus to internal management, rather than the growing external threat of Russia,” he says. In addition to Trump-promised universal tariffs of at least 10%, the European Union will need to forge “coalitions of the willing…requiring bold leadership which has been lacking for several years,” says Arnold. And according to Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy,
And the Middle East? “Gulf states, chiefly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, likely believe there is more to be gained under the second Trump presidency, such as US security guarantees, arm deals, and a tougher stance on Iran,” RUSI’s Burcu Ozcelik writes. “It is difficult to see how a Trump administration will pivot to improve the situation for Palestinians,” he adds. But in large part, “Many in the region will be readying for a return to Trump’s transactional diplomacy—a tit-for-tat, business-deal-making approach—that the regional political elite will be familiar with from the previous Trump administration,” he says.
As for China and the economy, Trump promised tariffs as high as 60% on incoming Chinese products. Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy forecasts “profound economic losses” from Trump’s economic plans, including a 0.5% decline in the European Union’s GDP, and more than a 3% drop in German productivity; however, “China would bear the greatest losses,” Kiel wrote in October. Relatedly, Trump’s promised domestic tax cuts are expected to raise the U.S. debt by nearly $8 trillion through 2035.
Big picture: “We do not know what will happen to the US,” British academic Renaud Foucart writes in The Conversation. “Maybe prohibitive tariffs or destroying the institutions that made the US such an economic powerhouse will make the US economy less relevant. But this is something Americans have chosen, and something the rest of the world simply has to live with.”
Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1865, the captain of the Confederate raider Shenandoah put into an English port and performed the final surrender of the war.
Election threats
Russian meddling. Hours before millions of Americans headed to the polls on Tuesday, the U.S. intelligence community said Russia was spreading fake news stories to create the perception that officials in key swing states are preparing to commit various acts of election fraud. Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reported Tuesday.
On the afternoon of Election Day itself, CISA officials said that they had seen no “national-level significant incidents” that would affect the security of today’s presidential election, Govexec’s David DiMolfetta reported.
Russian email domains were used to send bomb threats to polling places, but these were later deemed not “credible” by law enforcement. Read, here.
Prime minister fires defense minister, dimming ceasefire prospects. Binyamin Netanyahu canned his longtime defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who had spoken out publicly about his disagreements in the pursuit of war in Gaza. It is “a risky step at a moment when Israel is fighting on two fronts,” the New York Times reports. “Mr. Gallant was pushing for a cease-fire deal in Gaza that would secure the release of hostages held there, and his dismissal removes the main proponent in the Israeli government for such an agreement. Mr. Gallant and Mr. Netanyahu also clashed over domestic political issues, particularly the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Israelis.” Read on, here.
Pacific
China releases a photo of its new stealth fighter ahead of its official unveiling. Compare photos of China’s twin-engine J-35A and the Pentagon’s single-engine F-35, courtesy of X user @Rupprecht_A. Officials said ton Tuesday that the jet will appear at next week’s 15th Zhuhai air show in southern China. The War Zone breaks down what we already knew about the stealth jet and what new tidbits have been added, here.
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Kari Wilkinson has been tapped as the next head of Newport News Shipbuilding, the division of HII that builds the U.S. Navy’s aircraft carriers and is one of two U.S. nuclear-submarine yards. On Jan. 1, Wilkinson will succeed Jennifer Boykin, who is retiring after 37 years with the company, an HII statement said Wednesday.
“Fat Leonard” sentenced to 15 years in prison, must repay $55 million. Francis Leonard, the man behind one of the widest bribery scandals in U.S. history, was already in jail, having escaped house arrest in September 2022, fled to Venezuela, and been hauled back to the U.S. last December. “Prosecutors said the sentence resulted from Francis’ first guilty plea in 2015 concerning bribery and fraud, his extensive cooperation with the government since then and another guilty plea Tuesday for failing to appear for his original sentencing hearing in 2022,” AP reported.
Leonard’s scheme implicated dozens of U.S. Navy officers, while related investigations disrupted the careers of hundreds more, right up to the service’s highest levels. Perhaps the most comprehensive reporting on the scandal and its effects is the book by Craig Whitlock, an investigative reporter for the Washington Post.