Approximately two weeks ago, reports from the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post revealed that U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Israel is contemplating “significant strikes” on nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz, potentially as early as the first half of 2025. The timing aligns with the transition between the end of the Biden administration and the early days of the Trump administration.
“Iranian authorities are bracing for an attack and expect it to occur at any night in the near future. The entire country is on high alert, even at sites whose existence is unknown to most,” a source told the Telegraph. “Efforts to strengthen nuclear sites have been ongoing for years but have intensified over the past year, particularly since Israel’s first strike. Recent developments, including President Trump’s statements and reports of his potential plans to target Iran have only accelerated these activities.”
Since the outbreak of hostilities, Israel and Iran have exchanged direct attacks, but Tehran now fears that, with President Donald Trump’s support, Israel is nearing a decisive strike on its nuclear facilities. According to the Wall Street Journal, a summary of the intelligence report noted that Israel is likely to pressure Trump’s administration for backing, as it views Trump as more inclined to join such an operation than Biden.
A source speaking to the Telegraph acknowledged Iran’s vulnerability to a large-scale attack, particularly as its defense systems were weakened by an Israeli strike last year. “Additional air defense launchers have been deployed, but there’s an understanding that they may not withstand a large-scale assault,” the source explained.
Satellite images have revealed damage caused by Israeli strikes on sites such as the Shahroud Space Center in northern Iran’s Semnan province, used for launches by the Revolutionary Guards. These strikes were part of Operation “Days of Repentance, three waves of Israeli strikes against 20 locations in Iran and other locations in Iraq, and Syria on October 26, 2024.
Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Aerospace Force, announced this week that Iran is also developing a ballistic missile defense system to counter Israeli strikes. “Recent events have exposed gaps in our ballistic defense sector, highlighting the need for this new system,” he stated. The defense system is expected to be operational by March and deployed in Tehran and several major cities. “We currently have the capability to produce missiles with a range of 1,240 miles and face no technical limitations in this regard. Should there be a threat from the US, we can target nearby objectives at minimal cost,” he claimed.
The weakening of Iran’s proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, along with the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria , has further strained Tehran’s position, making it more vulnerable to Trump’s policies. Since returning to the White House, Trump has reinstated his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, aiming to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons and reducing Iranian oil exports “to zero.” This week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that, with Trump’s support, Israel would “finish the job” with Iran. However, analysts suggest Israel is unlikely to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. assistance.
expressed a preference for negotiating a deal with Iran but has also made it clear that military action remains on the table if talks fail. An Iranian official told the Telegraph that there is growing concern in Tehran that “the U.S. might join Israel in launching a large-scale attack that could threaten the very existence of the Islamic Republic.” Earlier Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, after meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, stated that Tehran would not negotiate under threats or pressure. “There will be no direct talks with the U.S. as long as the ‘maximum pressure’ policy continues,” he declared.