At the end of 2024, China showcased its latest military advancements through a series of strategic announcements and calculated leaks, reinforcing its ambitions as a global power. These developments coincided with the release of the Pentagon’s annual report on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Going beyond a routine analytical exercise, the report outlines key trends in China’s military modernization – from advancements in nuclear and conventional forces to emerging defense technologies and deepening military ties with Russia and Iran – and lays the foundation for US containment strategies, defense planning and operational responses.
The report also underscores the intensifying US-China rivalry, highlighting the broader implications of China’s military rise for global security, including Europe. In January 2025, for example, Serbia became the first European country to deploy a Chinese-made missile defense system on its territory, demonstrating how Beijing’s technological advancements could influence the military landscape beyond Asia, including in the EU’s immediate neighborhood.
Military Modernization
As outlined by the Pentagon’s report, China’s military modernization reflects a strategic shift toward achieving “world-class military” status by 2049 – a well-known milestone in the PRC’s strategic agenda. By 2024, the PLA’s nuclear arsenal had already surpassed 600 operational warheads, with projections indicating it will reach over 1,000 warheads by 2030 and, if current expansion rates continue, potentially 1,200 by 2035. This is complemented by advancements in hypersonic weaponry and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) systems, enabling Beijing to pose precision-strike threats to the US and its allies. The number of operational ICBMs is expected to double by 2030, further enhancing the PLA’s strategic deterrence.
Conventional forces are also advancing. The PLA Navy (PLAN) is now the world’s largest navy by fleet size, boasting over 370 combat vessels, a number projected to reach 435 by 2030. It is anticipated that by 2025, modern, multi-mission ships equipped with advanced missile systems and electronic warfare capabilities will constitute more than 80 percent of the fleet, a significant leap from the current 70 percent. Coupled with increasing capabilities for long-range deployments, these advancements extend the PLAN’s reach beyond the First Island Chain, posing a direct challenge to the Indo-Pacific’s existing security architecture.
Meanwhile, the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and Rocket Force (PLARF) are advancing rapidly in the fields of artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, and space technologies, positioning China as a competitor in domains traditionally dominated by the West.
Partnerships with Russia and Iran
China’s growing military cooperation with Russia and Iran adds another layer to its military strategy and US assessments. Despite its uneasy role, the collaboration includes joint military exercises, arms transfers, and potential intelligence sharing, forming a key part of China’s efforts to counter Western influence.
The Pentagon’s report states that “China and Russia have significantly expanded their joint military training programs, strengthening their ability to operate in tandem across multiple domains, including missile defense, cyber operations, and electronic warfare.” Indeed, over the past two years, China and Russia have dramatically increased their joint military activities, conducting over 20 joint drills in strategic areas such as the East China Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and even the airspace near Alaska.
These exercises demonstrate the growing interoperability between the two militaries, reinforcing their ability to coordinate across multiple domains, including naval, aerial, and electronic. This mirrors NATO-style interoperability training, ensuring Chinese forces can seamlessly cooperate with their Russian counterparts in high-intensity conflict scenarios. At the same time, the exercises also serve as a testing ground for China’s military advancements, allowing the PLA to refine its operational effectiveness by integrating advanced missile defense systems, cyber warfare tactics, and precision-strike capabilities.
For several years now, Iran has also participated in naval exercises with China and Russia in the western Indian Ocean under the so-called “Maritime Security Belt” initiative, which started in 2019. Adding a new dimension to Beijing’s military diplomacy, the exercises enhance interoperability among the three countries and extend their strategic presence in regions like the Middle East and Central Asia, where China’s presence is increasingly pronounced. The Pentagon’s report also notes that “Iran provides China with access to advanced drone and missile technologies, which Beijing integrates into its defense modernization programs.”
These developments illustrate how Beijing actively fosters military partnerships that could reshape global security dynamics. The Pentagon assesses that “China’s engagement with Russia and Iran is not merely transactional but reflects a strategic vision aimed at undermining US influence and reshaping the global security order to align with Beijing’s interests.”
Challenging the US Naval and Aerial Power
The PLA also conducts unilateral military exercises to assess the readiness and effectiveness of its own forces. Recent media reports indicate that Beijing has conducted a high-tech simulation of a surprise US missile attack on a PLA carrier group in the South China Sea. The exercise, aimed at testing China’s ability to counter such attacks, suggests that Beijing is preparing for scenarios involving stealth long-range missiles such as the US AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM), with a focus on overcoming these threats through electronic warfare and advanced detection systems.
This underscores a critical aspect of China’s strategic thinking: the need to counter the technological edge of the US and its allies in a potential naval conflict. The PLAN’s expansion, alongside advancements in missile defense and electronic warfare, aims to solidify China’s control over contested waters and challenge US maritime superiority. The report details advancements in China’s anti-ship and area-denial capabilities, including the YJ-21 hypersonic missile launched from Type 055 cruisers.
China’s advancements in stealth aircraft further underscore its military ambitions, including its efforts to challenge US air superiority. At the end of December 2024, images of two new next-generation stealth aircraft projects surfaced: the J-35 stealth fighter designed for carrier operations, and the H-20 stealth bomber, expected to enhance the PLAAF’s intercontinental strike capabilities and reinforce its nuclear deterrence. These advancements align with the Pentagon’s assessment, which highlights China’s refinement of its fifth-generation fighter fleet and next-generation aircraft with improved low-observability, enhanced avionics, and greater operational range.
Military-Civil Fusion
Central to China’s military modernization is its Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) strategy, which, according to the Pentagon’s report, “fuses security and development systems into Integrated National Strategic System and Capabilities (INSS&C) in support of the PRC’s national rejuvenation goals.” In other words, the MCF integrates civilian technological advancements into military applications, allowing Beijing to systematically leverage academic, private sector and other research institutions –often without their full knowledge – to advance its military capabilities, especially in emerging fields like AI, quantum computing, and aerospace.
In response, Washington recently published a list of 134 Chinese companies – including major firms in aerospace, information technology, and chemical engineering – that it believes are contributing to the PLA’s military buildup. These include tech giants like Huawei, Tencent and CATL, as well as the world’s largest shipping company COSCO, and China National Offshore Oil Company. This reflects Washington’s efforts to curb China’s access to cutting-edge technologies with dual-use applications and counter its long-term strategy of technological accumulation, central to Beijing’s ambitions of achieving military superiority by 2049. While inclusion on the list does not automatically result in sanctions, it signals an intent to restrict cooperation between these firms and US entities.
Expanding Arms Exports
The Pentagon’s report also highlights China’s growing role as a global arms supplier: “As of 2023, the PRC is the fourth-largest arms supplier in the world and sells nearly every category of conventional military equipment, including UAVs, MANPADS, submarines, naval surface vessels, SAM systems, and fighter aircraft to customers worldwide.”
Many of these are exported to countries in the Global South, where they offer lower-cost alternatives to Western arms suppliers. These exports, often paired with flexible payment options, economic incentives and fewer restrictions, allow China to strengthen relationships with authoritarian regimes facing arms embargoes from the US and the EU. As mentioned above, China has already made inroads into Europe, with Serbia becoming the first European nation to deploy a Chinese-made missile defense system – FK-3, a variant of the HQ-22. In this sense, the PLA’s increasingly sophisticated weaponry, including hypersonic missiles and advanced air defense systems, demonstrates a clear ambition to compete with the most advanced global military manufacturers.
Implications for Global Security
China’s military rise, combined with the deepening China-Russia-Iran military nexus, has broad geopolitical consequences. The increasing sophistication of China’s armed forces enhances its ability to project power into regions of strategic importance, while investments in cyber and grey zone operations allow it to achieve strategic objectives without traditional military confrontation.
The Pentagon’s report highlights the urgency for global actors to adapt to this evolving threat landscape. For the US and the EU, countering China’s military modernization requires sustained strategic vigilance, proactive security and defense policies and strengthened alliances to navigate these shifting power dynamics.