Even if Trump manages to tactically stop the Ukraine war, he will lack the ability to alter the strategic context in which the war emerged – a context to which the US deep state is deeply committed. Trump does not have the power to overcome the deep state in America. He will either gradually align with it or be sidelined, Alireza Noori writes.
One of the major problems in Iran-Russia relations during the post-Soviet era has been the significant influence of the “US variable”. This impact is evident in the decline of Moscow’s ties with Tehran during periods of close relations with Washington, such as during the Reset project (Medvedev-Obama), and the strengthening of ties with Tehran during times of tension, such as after the Ukraine war.
On the Iranian side, whenever discussions about improving relations with the West have arisen (such as after the signing of the JCPOA), there have been simultaneous indications of Tehran’s desire to distance itself from Russia. Conversely, whenever pressures on Iran have intensified (such as following the implementation of the “maximum pressure” strategy during Trump’s first term), Iran’s inclination toward Russia has grown stronger.
Although the relationship between the two countries has become more solidified in recent years, expanding across various fields, and both sides have sought to mitigate the influence of the “US factor” on relations by signing a comprehensive strategic agreement (January 2025), the heavy shadow of this variable continues to loom over their bilateral ties.
It is in this context that, following Trump’s return to power and his expressed desire to end the Ukraine war and restore relations with Russia, speculation about the potential negative impact of this shift on Moscow-Tehran relations has gained attention. In this regard, given Trump’s transactional approach, questions arise as to what exactly he would expect to receive from Kremlin in exchange for ending the Ukraine war. One hypothesis raised in Iran is that a major deal requires a “deal package,” and in this package, Iran and the Iranian card will be among the items traded.
Although many of Trump’s ideas and plans will not come to fruition and will be halted by the complex dialectics of international politics– thus raising doubts about the realisation of a grand bargain with Russia – he has shown a more bold, more determined, more aggressive, and perhaps more purposeful approach than in his first term, and will likely pursue the restoration of relations with Moscow as an important goal.