The skies are getting smaller—and more dangerous

By Leo Mirani, Asia correspondent, The Economist

Consider this scenario: war in the Middle East shuts down airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon. To the north, Russian skies remain forbidden to Western airlines. Given that most airlines have long avoided routes that cross Syria, Ukraine and Yemen, and many also avoid Afghanistan, the effect on aviation would be enormous. The world’s busiest routes would be squeezed into a few heavily congested corridors. There would not be room in the skies for all east-west air traffic, says Thomas Jaeger, the founder of ch-aviation, a data company.

This article appeared in the International section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2025 under the headline “Crowded skies”