The Taliban has long held international energy ambitions. Plans to build a $10 billion gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, known as the TAPI pipeline project, began during the first Taliban regime between 1996 and 2001. Now, with the Taliban back in power in Kabul, the idea has been resurrected.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid announced last week that work had begun on the pipeline after Afghan officials joined dignitaries in Turkmenistan to celebrate its completion on that side of the border. “From today, the operations will start on Afghanistan’s soil,” Mujahid declared.
But regional instability, international isolation, and doubts over the capacity of the Taliban to manage such a complex multi-layered project mean that the success of this ambitious venture remains at best uncertain.
At first glance, connecting Central and South Asia appears an ideal match: South Asia needs energy to fuel its economic growth, while Central Asia possesses vast energy resources. But even across 20 years of the Afghan republic, various obstacles have stopped the project, and most are yet to be overcome, including rivalry between Pakistan and India, along with the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan itself.
To successfully construct and operate the pipeline, serious bilateral and multilateral discussions are needed.
Pakistan’s need for energy to meet the demands of a growing population has seen it turn elsewhere for gas supplies, with Iran offering to extend its own “peace pipeline”. Iran completed part of the deal earlier this year, but pressure from the United States saw that project delayed.
The United States, Russia, and China all have stakes in the region. Pakistan is wary that Taliban control over energy supplies may enable political leverage. And India, which has no effective diplomatic ties with the Taliban, does not want to be “held hostage” to geopolitical tensions, as independent researcher Javed Noorani puts it. Noorani also wonders how the Taliban will address the need for engineers and other skilled labour.
But if demand can spur supply, the hope for the TAPI pipeline makes sense given the growing energy needs of Pakistan and India. If Pakistan and India cooperate – a big if – the goal is to transport approximately 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh gas field. There are also rosy estimates on the significant economic benefits of the project, including employment, energy supply and industrialisation.
But the Afghan part of the planned route will be the most challenging, passing through some of the most volatile regions of the country. The Taliban’s lack of inclusivity has alienated other ethnic groups, and Amrullah Saleh, the former vice president, has warned that the Taliban is using the TAPI project largely as a commercial announcement due to shifting relations between major powers. And the lack of international recognition for the Taliban compounds the difficulties. To successfully construct and operate the pipeline, serious bilateral and multilateral discussions are needed.
Moreover, with the Taliban imposing restrictions on women and banning girls from education, coupled with reports of human rights violations, Afghanistan has become even more internationally isolated.
While the TAPI project has the potential to provide much-needed energy to South Asia, the Taliban has little chance to deliver.