throwback-to-cold-war-–-oped-–-eurasia-review

Throwback To Cold War – OpEd – Eurasia Review

The joint declaration by the US and Germany during the NATO summit indicating that the US will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fire capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany by 2026 prompted an angry reaction from Moscow.  The benign hopes built up by the international community in the last decade of the Cold War to end the animosities by signing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty have now entered history as the US withdrew from it during the Trump administration in 2019. The vortex that erupted in the aftermath of US Russo withdrawal from IRNFT became more severe when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, which accelerated Russian paranoia in Europe at an unprecedented level.

The recent joint declaration at the NATO summit is another brick adding to the European resistance against Russian military expeditions in Ukraine. But, it’s noteworthy that the joint declaration did not involve other European countries. Meanwhile, the Italian prime minister announced Italy will co-host the long-range missiles in the US base in Sicily. German Chancellor Olaf Scolz welcomed this development eagerly as a timely move that favours the nation’s security strategy, even as the move attracted fierce criticism amid fears it would make Germany more vulnerable to attack. In fact ‘ Chancellor’s decision was a stark contrast to NATO’s controversial decision in 1979 to deploy ground-launched cruise missiles and Pershing ballistic missiles, in which then German chancellor Helmut Schmidt clearly demanded that another one or two European countries host them in their soils. Gutted by the Cold War scenario and the expansion of “ Iron Curtain” the General reception for 1979 was a hostile one filled with large mass demonstrations and antiwar rallies across the major European capitals. Thus far, the joint declaration made by the US and Germans seemed to have not forged an antagonistic reception from the public within the continent.

The joint declaration at the NATO summit has certainly angered Moscow as a part of the Transatlantic strategy to undermine Russian interests. The Russian position was clear in the statement made by the deputy foreign minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov  who issued a stark warning to Berlin denoting that Moscow would not mitigate the threat posed by NATO as it can challenge the security architecture of Russia.

In his usual anti-western ire, Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov lampoons the move as a serious threat to Russia.  The Cold War was the Mateix for Kenan’s containment policy which continued to play a vital role in the US policy and Europe’s paranoia over Russian aggression under Putin has leveraged Washington’s strategic designs.  Jack Sulvian, the US n security adviser admits that What we are deploying to Germany is a defensive capability. Like many other defensive capabilities, we’ve deployed across the alliance across the decades. 

The question that comes to the fore is whether the installation of long-range missiles will lead to worsen the regional security volatility in Europe or would it augment the security equilibrium of Europe. Taking the realist approach in IR, one can contend the missile will improve NATO’s deterrence capabilities. In particular, in the case of the Russian offensive, the long-range missiles have the fullest capabilities in penetrating the Russian territory, which can become catastrophic to Moscow’s ambitions. 

Amidst the new generation of warfare, a doctrine espoused by Russia containing many facets of warfare such as the spread of misinformation and cyber attacks, the adoption of long-range missiles unveils NATO’s novel approach to confront Russia, which is a stark reminder of Eisenhower’s “ New Look” strategy by deploying a larger number of nuclear missiles and air power to crush the massive Soviet ground superiority.  

On the other hand, installing long-range missiles in Germany appears to be a more formidable deterrence to Russia than the so-called chain of sanctions imposed by the West to sabotage the Russian weapon machinery process. Contrary to what everyone expected, the Russian weapon industry remains unharmed due to its alliance with countries like China, Iran and North Korea. Despite the stringent pattern of sanctions, Russia has aptly managed to continue manufacturing weapons. Thus, the long-range missiles can pose a direct concern for the security apparatus in Russia. 

The flip side of this move is that the return of long-range missiles to Germany can pave the way for further deterioration of the relations between Moscow and Berlin.  Germany’s energy dependence on Russia during Angela Merkel’s administration displeased Washington, which finally reached its nadir in 2022 as Germany finally halted the Norad stream 2. Also, the alleged espionage activities of SVR in the German capital for the past few years increased the tense situation between the two countries. Against the backdrop of such a situation, Germany’s move to host the long-range missiles has been subjected to vehement criticism within Germany as main opposition parties doubt that these new developments can accelerate an armed race, in which Germany becomes a pawn state.

The escalating arms race in Europe is a growing concern, potentially leading to a new cold war between Russia and the West. Germany and other European nations are purchasing supersonic missiles from US weapon dealers as a deterrent against possible Russian aggression. This has led to accusations of fueling Russian paranoia, with Germany being a primary target. In response, Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov stated that Russia has the capabilities to counter US plans, but European capitals are at risk of being drawn into the arms race. This decision by Germany has further widened the divide, potentially leading Russia to strengthen its alliance with China, Iran, and North Korea against Transatlantic powers.