The greater Middle East is erupting, and in just six weeks — tick tock, tick tock — it’s Donald Trump’s problem. Why it matters: For all the attention paid to technological face-offs with China and measurements of military might in the Indo-Pacific, it will be the pressures of the Middle East that dominate the early days of Trump’s Pentagon.
• That puts a premium on drone and counter-drone tech, which evolved in the post-9/11 world, as well as air defenses.
• In turn, the teeth of American forces posted in China’s backyard could be dulled, as Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo cautioned days ago.
Between the lines: Some of Trump’s picks for key government posts are global war on terrorism veterans. Their experience and potential disillusionment will color, not determine, the administration’s approach.
• Task and Purpose explained it expertly this week.
• “The worldview of these veterans has largely been shaped by more than two decades of war,” Jeff Schogol wrote. “[Pete] Hegseth, [Tulsi] Gabbard, and [JD] Vance in particular have shown a deep distrust for the foreign interventionalist ideology that underpinned the start” of the war on terror.
Our thought bubble: Squaring much-debated MAGA isolationism with the dangers of the Middle East, including continued assaults on U.S. warships, is difficult.
Among the major flash points this year:
• Breakthrough fighting in Syria throws Russia off balance and elevates Turkey. The U.S. keeps about 900 troops in the country; the Defense Department said it had no hand in the clashes around Aleppo.
• Houthi attacks off Yemen paralyze global shipping and push U.S. Navy stockpiles into the spotlight. Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer, said at an Axios event that rebel missile advancements “shocked” him.
• Months of war in Gaza, spurred by the Oct. 7 massacre, stress test the U.S.-Israel relationship, including weapons accountability. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire is brokered with Lebanon.
• Iran pushes ahead with its nuclear program, earning a jab from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and launches historic but largely intercepted drone-and-missile barrages.
• Three U.S. soldiers are killed at Tower 22 in Jordan. Washington retaliates with B-1 bombers and more, blasting 85 targets in Iraq and Syria.
Trump himself threatened to get involved in the region, saying Monday there “will be ALL HELL TO PAY” if hostages taken by Hamas are not freed come his inauguration.
• Exactly how, when or where isn’t clear, but he has hit back before.
• “If you are a bad guy and you are not afraid of Trump then you are also a dumb guy,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Axios’ Barak Ravid. “Bad and dumb guys don’t last long.”
• This is also a preview of the next four years. Policy by posting. Threats via threads.
Yes, but: “Sentiment among Washington’s China hawks and Middle East hands is the same: Don’t let the urgent get in the way of the important,” Ian Byrne with Beacon Global Strategies told Axios.
• “It’s a false premise that the U.S. must prioritize one region over the other when U.S. interests overlap across both.”
What’s next: Novel solutions are needed where decades of effort and overwhelming firepower have failed. All eyes are on Trump.