Trump, Syria Leave Iran on the Back Foot

• Iran enters 2025 weakened by the fall of key ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the deterioration of its so-called Axis of Resistance, and a worsening economy.
• The return of Donald Trump as US president could see Iran’s main revenue source, oil exports to China, hit by tighter sanctions enforcement.
• The combination of possible sanctions pressures, slowing global oil demand and domestic pushback on Iran’s expenditure to prop up regional allies raises the potential for renewed unrest at home.

Iran’s so-called forward-defense strategy of projecting power through its proxy allies and deterring its adversaries beyond its borders has taken a hit in 2024, reflected in Israel’s ability to severely degrade Hamas and Hezbollah and its willingness to strike deep inside Iran. Worse for Tehran, the fall of the Al-Assad regime in early December has cut the seminal link in its Shiite crescent extending from Iran via Iraq to Syria and Lebanon that served as a supply route for Hezbollah. Incoming US President-elect Donald Trump adds more unpredictability, putting everything from negotiations with Tehran to military action on the table.