Trump Wants to End Gaza’s War on Israel’s Terms

• Middle East and North Africa
• Steven A. Cook

President-elect Donald Trump’s broad mandate portends many changes to U.S. policy, but when it comes to the Middle East, things are likely to remain mostly the same. Support for Israel will continue, Iran will be a major pre-occupation, and Team Trump will likely look for ways to establish normal diplomatic relations between Saudis and Israelis. Sounds familiar, no?

Like the Biden administration, which worked for a cease-fire in Gaza that never was, Trump wants the war there to end sooner rather than later. In a phone call ahead of the election, the president-elect told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wrap up major military operations in Gaza before Inauguration Day. That is consistent with the Biden team’s efforts, though it is inconsistent with Israel’s timeline.

President-elect Donald Trump’s broad mandate portends many changes to U.S. policy, but when it comes to the Middle East, things are likely to remain mostly the same. Support for Israel will continue, Iran will be a major pre-occupation, and Team Trump will likely look for ways to establish normal diplomatic relations between Saudis and Israelis. Sounds familiar, no?

Like the Biden administration, which worked for a cease-fire in Gaza that never was, Trump wants the war there to end sooner rather than later. In a phone call ahead of the election, the president-elect told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wrap up major military operations in Gaza before Inauguration Day. That is consistent with the Biden team’s efforts, though it is inconsistent with Israel’s timeline.

Unlike Biden, however, Trump and the people around him are unlikely to apply pressure on the Israelis to get there. They are more likely to give Israel a lot of leeway, including releasing Biden’s hold on the transfer of certain weapons to finish the job as soon as possible. Biden, to be sure, has overseen an unprecedented 14-month effort to re-supply the Israel Defense Forces. But Trump is less likely to ask hard questions about Israel’s operations, the provision of humanitarian aid, and the status of Gaza after the war ends.

For Gazans, it may seem that the quicker the war ends the better. But if the Trump administration allows the Israeli government to pursue the end of the conflict in ways it sees fit, it is likely that more Palestinians will be killed along the way. Then, of course, there are Netanyahu’s partners who want to resettle the Gaza Strip, the logical conclusion of which is the further dispossession of a population that was already predominantly refugees and their descendants.

This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.