- 00:00FOUNDER BOB MCNALLY. YOU ARE WITH GEORGE BUSH. YOU WILL DRAW — WE WILL DRAW ON THAT EXPERTISE IN A MOMENT. THERE WAS MORE OF A BID TO OIL ON THE BACK OF RUSSIA’S ESCALATION RELATIVE TO UKRAINE. WHERE ARE WE IN THE ESCALATION OF RISK ANALYSIS? SINCE THE SUMMER, CRUDE HAS BEEN PINNED BETWEEN 70 ON THE BOTTOM, 80 ON THE TOP, MORE RECENTLY 75 ON THE TOPMOST OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK ON THE UPSIDE, MACRO CONCERNS ON THE DOWNSIDE. RIGHT NOW I THINK WE ARE STILL COMPLACENT ABOUT GEOPOLITICAL DISRUPTION RISK. BEFORE THE ELECTION, THE PRESIDENT — AND AFTER, THE MARKET WAS RIGHTLY FOCUSED ON THE BEARISH MACRO RISK, TARIFFS, TRADE WAR, DEBT, INTEREST RATES. WE AGREE. HOWEVER, MY SENSE IS UNTIL THE ELECTION COME THEY OVERLOOK THE GEOPOLITICAL RISK COMING FROM SANCTIONS, MAINLY IRAN, BUT ALSO AS WE ARE SEEING FROM RUSSIA. PRESIDENT BIDEN ON HIS WAY OUT OF THE STARTING TO WIND UP A LITTLE MORE ON SANCTIONING RUSSIA IN GAS, ALTHOUGH WE DON’T THINK U.S. SECTIONS THIS WEEK WILL BE TOO IMPACTFUL. — SANCTIONS THIS WEEK WILL BE TOO IMPACTFUL. PRESIDENT TRUMP BE WILLING OF NECESSARY AS WITH IRAN TO CRIMP RUSSIAN ENERGY EXPORTS TO GET LEVERAGE FOR DEALS HE WANTS TO CUT. MANUS: YOU EXPECT MAXIMUM IRAN CRUSH UP AT 1.5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY, IS THAT GOING TO MOVE THE NEEDLE FOR OPEC-PLUS? CERTAINLY IF IT MATERIALIZES. OPEC-PLUS IS NOT GOING TO MAKE POLICY BASED ON THAT POSSIBILITY. THEY SAW THAT IN 2018, SAUDI ARABIA PREEMPTIVELY HIKED AHEAD OF SANCTIONS ON IRAN THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE COMING. PRESIDENT TRUMP DELAYED THE SANCTIONS. PRICES COLLAPSED. THEY ARE NOT GOING TO PLAY THAT GAME AGAIN. WE ONLY SEE ABOUT HALF A MILLION BARRELS A DAY FROM IRAN. I THINK CHINA WILL BE INCREMENTAL AND REDUCING IT’S SUPPLIES FROM IRAN TO PLACATE PRESIDENT TRUMP. IT IS POSSIBLY BECAUSE BIGGER. IT PRESIDENT TRUMP REALLY DOES WHOLE HOG AND THEY TAKE DOWN AND MILLION MILLION TWO OF IRANIAN EXPORTS, THAT WOULD MOVE OVERSUPPLY NEXT YEAR, MAKES IT MUCH EASIER FOR OPEC-PLUS TO RETURN THOSE BARRELS. MANUS: THIS IS A GAME OF CHESS IN TERMS OF WHAT MAXIMUM PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE FROM THIS NEXT TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. THAT’S RIGHT. INCOMING ADVISORS FROM MARCO RUBIO ON DOWN, THE WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR, THEY ARE ALL AROUND HAWKS. — IRAN HAWKS. LEVERAGE IRAN’S VULNERABILITY. THERE ECONOMY IS MUCH WORSE THAN THE FIRST TERM. GET TO A DEAL. I THINK YOU WILL SEE THAT PRETTY SOON. UNTIL RECENTLY, THEIR MARKET WAS PRETTY COMPLACENT. MANUS: IF WE MOVE TO A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS SOME KIND OF END TO THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT AS TRUMP HAS PROMISED, WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS? THEY ARE NOT JUST GOING TO TURN ON, YOU KNOW, ACCESS OR ACCEPTING RUSSIAN OIL, ARE WE? YOU ARE RIGHT. WE ARE THINKING THIS WILL END LIKE THE KOREAN WAR OR CYPRUS OR KASHMIR. THERE WILL BE AN ARMISTICE BUT NO PEACE TREATY, NO EASING OF SANCTIONS AND SO FORTH. WE THINK WE ARE FAR AWAY FROM ANY KIND OF A GENUINE PEACE TREATY IN WHICH YOU WOULD SEE SANCTIONS COME DOWN. IF ANYTHING, SANCTIONS ARE PROBABLY HEADING TIGHTER, NOT LOOSER. MANUS: HOW MUCH TIGHTER COULD THAT GET ON THE ENERGY FRONT? HOW MUCH HIGHER COULD THINGS GO?IRAN IS A BIG OIL CARD. WE ARE COMING TO A CROSSROADS IN WITH IRAN AND ISRAEL. EITHER WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A COMPREHENSIVE DEAL WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP THAT WILL RESOLVE THE NUCLEAR CONCERNS, REGIONAL CONCERNS, TERRORISM SUPPORT FOR RUSSIA ON THE ONE HAND OR WE FEAR NEXT YEAR IS GOING TO BE A PIVOT POINT. WE THINK IRAN IS SO CLOSE TO ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM, ISRAEL IS ABLE AND WILLING TO ATTACK THAT NUCLEAR PROGRAM IF IT IS ATTACKED AGAIN. WE THINK NEXT YEAR IS GOING TO BE A YOUR DECISION WHERE IT IS
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