Trump’s return a driving force as Gaza ceasefire deal appears close: Analysts

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Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House is a major push factor behind a ceasefire deal in Gaza, which appears closer than ever to being signed, analysts said. 

Hopes of a halt to the 15-month war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas is rising as negotiators have said they are ironing out final details amid marathon truce talks in Qatar.

Experts said uncertainty over what moves the incoming United States president could take regarding the conflict have made warring parties more willing to negotiate a deal ahead of his inauguration next Monday (Jan 20).

“The arrival of (Trump) … who has gone on record saying he wants this issue to be resolved by the time he assumes office … is the driving force that’s getting us close to an agreement,” said Nader Hashemi, associate professor of Middle East and Islamic politics at Georgetown University.

Trump has warned Hamas there will be “hell to pay” if it does not release the remaining hostages before he takes office.

Despite Trump’s pro-Israel record, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also expected to be apprehensive, said Simon Frankel Pratt, a senior political science lecturer at the University of Melbourne.

“Trump is a volatile figure, and while he is sympathetic to Israel’s security risks … it’s very difficult to predict what he would do,” he told CNA’s Asia Now.

“(His presidency offers) both great opportunities and risks for Netanyahu. The stakes are high, because business is not as usual once Trump takes the reins.”

Hashemi said the Israeli leader is likely keen to start off ties with Trump on the right foot by “handing Trump a victory”.

“Trump loves to grandstand and claim that he’s a leader on the global stage with stature. From Netanyahu’s perspective, he’ll view (the deal) as a gift to Trump that he can claim as he arrives in the White House.

The proposed phased ceasefire will see the release of hostages held in Gaza and Palestinian detainees held by Israel.

Israel will also move out of populated areas in the enclave, allowing those displaced to return home and humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza.

Similar agreements have fallen through time and again over the course of the war, with both sides unwilling to accept some key proposals in previous deals. However, Pratt said “cautious optimism seems warranted” this time.

“Israel’s military efforts in Gaza have stalled; they’re not dealing much heavier blows to Hamas now than they have months ago. There’s not really any further victory that Israel can win,” he added.

WHAT HAPPENS ONCE A DEAL IS SIGNED?

Analysts said an agreement will be the start of a long and difficult journey for Gaza’s rebuilding, where even the removal of rubble is expected to take more than a decade.

Israel will begin to withdraw in some areas and permit the passage of internally displaced residents in the south to return to what remains of their homes in the north.

“As displaced individuals move from the south to the north, amongst them will likely be Hamas fighters. So, for Israel to agree to this is a significant concession,” said Pratt.

“But it’s one that has to occur if the residents of Gaza are to return to their lives and begin rebuilding. A lot of innocent lives depend on continued cooperation.”

Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders on Oct 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli officials.

Since then, Israel has vowed to dismantle Hamas. Israeli forces have killed more than 46,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials.

Most of Gaza Strip has been devastated, with homes destroyed and basic institutions needed to sustain life – including water, sanitation and electricity – decimated. It has been difficult to get humanitarian aid into the war-torn enclave as well.

If the truce is successful, it would also ease tensions in the Middle East where the conflict has spilled over to neighbouring Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, amid fears of a wider war with Iran.

Even so, analysts said the situation is fragile and there is “enormous risk” that conflict could resume, as deep hostility remains in the region.

“Gaza’s future is uncertain, (as is) the future of the Israel-Palestine conflict,” said Hashemi.

“There has to be a future where both Israelis and Palestinians can live in peace, security and dignity. That issue is unresolved, and it doesn’t look like it will be resolved in the foreseeable future.”