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Ukraine war latest: Kremlin denies Ukraine talks with Trump – as expert warns things ‘not looking good’ for Kyiv

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Russian secret service agent detained by Ukrainian police

A man working for the Russian secret service has been detained in northeastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian national police has said. 

In a post on X, the force said the 50-year-old man had tried to collect and hand over locations of Ukrainian soldiers to Russian troops. 

“The agent was supposed to find out the coordinates of fortified areas, artillery fire positions and anti-aircraft missile systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which defend Ukraine’s border with the Russian Federation,” it said. 

“In the case of obtaining actual geolocations of the defence forces, the occupiers planned to attack them from the air, including with missiles and kamikaze drones.” 

It said the man was being held in custody and faces life imprisonment. 

Trump’s call with Putin ‘a very good early sign’ for Ukraine, says UK defence secretary

US media reports suggest president-elect Donald Trump has spoken to Vladimir Putin about the war in Ukraine.

While denied by the Kremlin, The Washington Post and Reuters said Trump – who has previously claimed he’d end the war in a single day – used the phone call to urge the Russian president not to escalate the conflict.

If the reports are correct, UK Defence Secretary John Healey says it’s a “very good first step and an early sign” that the incoming Trump administration will stay behind Ukraine.

Speaking in the House of Commons, he said he expects Trump to “recognise it’s in America’s interests” to do so.

“If countries like Russia are able to redraw international boundaries by force, that sends a signal that undermines the security of all nations,” he said. 

Is it illegal for Trump to call Putin?

Reports have emerged in the last 24 hours that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke on a call last week, with the US president-elect apparently urging the Russian leader not to escalate the war in Ukraine.

The Washington Post and Reuters both reported that the call, which is said to have taken place in the days after the US election, saw Trump remind Putin of America’s sizeable military presence in Europe.

The Kremlin has since denied such a call took place, calling the reports “pure fiction” (see 9.02 post).

Could that denial be because it’s illegal in America for the two to be discussing foreign policy?

What is the Logan Act?

The Logan Act prohibits private US citizens from engaging without authorisation in diplomacy with foreign governments that are in dispute with America.

Violations of the law could be met with a fine or up to three years in prison.

The statute first came into being in 1799, but there have only been two prosecutions under it since – in 1803 and 1856, and neither resulted in a conviction.

Speaking before reports of the latest call between Trump and Putin emerged, Julian Ku, a law professor at Hofstra University, told Axios that calls between the pair would only violate the Logan Act “if they’re talking about a plan to undermine US policy toward Russia”.

Trump has previously accused others of violating the Logan Act, including former secretary of state John Kerry in 2019 for allegedly participating in negotiations with Iran. Kerry denied any accusations of wrongdoing.

Could Trump go to prison over this?

In short, it’s unlikely.

The law was enacted at a time when the First Amendment was interpreted differently than it is today, Mr Ku says.

Given the Logan Act directly regulates speech based on its content, Trump would still have a “pretty good First Amendment defence if it ever got to court”.

In pictures: Aftermath of Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih

Earlier, we reported on a Russian missile attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih (see 9.24 post).

The area’s regional governor has said four people have been injured in the attack, adding that there may be victims under the rubble of a high-rise building that was struck.

The images below show the aftermath of the attack as rescue teams work on searching the site for survivors and clearing the debris.

Ukraine may welcome Trump’s election win – report

Ukraine may welcome Donald Trump’s US election victory as Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s staff have become “increasingly frustrated” at the Joe Biden administration, according to The Economist.

Zelenskyy’s team has reportedly grown upset with the Biden administration, believing it fears escalation with Russia “to the point of paralysis”.

The report adds that Kyiv believes there to be a “growing gap” between Washington’s rhetoric of “standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes” and actions that suggest the opposite.

Among the reported list of grievances held by Zelenskyy’s staff are America’s refusal to grant Ukraine permission to use its long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia, delays in supplies of military aid, and its inability to offer “solid security guarantees”.

Trump’s victory, it adds, could offer Zelenskyy a way out of what looks like “a bloody deadlock at best, defeat at worst”.

The Ukrainian leader was among the first to endorse Trump’s victory in the US election, saying on X he was looking forward to an era of a strong America under Trump’s “decisive leadership”.

Things ‘not looking good’ for Ukraine after Trump win, says analyst

“Everything suggests” that Donald Trump will “throw Ukraine under the bus” when he takes office in January, a foreign affairs analyst has told Sky News.

Trump has suggested he would be able to end the war between Russia and Ukraine “within 24 hours” of starting his second term as US president, without explaining how.

Kyiv and its allies fear he will give in to the demands of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who wants Ukraine to give up its ambitions of joining NATO and withdraw its troops from its territory currently held by Moscow’s forces.

Tim Marshall says we’ll have to wait to see what appointments Trump makes around him to judge what his approach to Ukraine will be, but currently it doesn’t look good for Kyiv.

“Everything so far suggests, for Ukraine, [America is] going to throw them under the bus,” Mr Marshall tells Sky News.

“There are potentialities that Trump, wanting to appear strong on the world stage, actually surprises us all. 

“But so far, personnel shapes policy, and all the personnel that are shaping up are shaping up for a policy that says to Ukraine: ‘It’s over, you’re going to have to compromise, give up your land and go to the table probably from a position of weakness.’

“Things will become clearer between now and 20 January, but it’s not looking good for Ukraine.”

Ukrainian forces engaged against 50,000 troops in Kursk region, says Zelenskyy

Ukraine’s forces are engaged against nearly 50,000 troops in Russia’s Kursk region, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.

Earlier, we reported that Moscow had amassed a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, to march on the Kursk region (see 9.50 post).

In a post on Telegram, Zelenskyy said Ukrainian troops “continue to hold back” Russia’s forces in the area.

He also said Ukraine would “considerably strengthen” its positions on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fronts in the east, where the most active fighting is taking place. 

Your questions answered: Why is Russia not attacking Ukraine from the north?

Ukraine’s capital Kyiv is in the north of the country, with Belarus being the city’s nearest land border.

But Russian efforts to take control are largely concentrating on the east of the country, where Putin is aiming to take the whole of the Donbas region.

Today, Tom asks:

Why is Russia not attacking from the north of Ukraine as intensely as the east? Wouldn’t Putin’s invasion be more effective if he were to station troops to go through Belarus?

Military analyst Sean Bell says this…

Early in the war, Russia forward-deployed troops in Belarus and conducted limited operations from the territory. 

Although an attack from the north would cause some challenges for Ukraine – defensive forces would have to be spread more widely – it is increasingly unlikely that any such attack from Belarus territory will occur, for two primary reasons.

Firstly, Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenko is described as Europe’s last dictator.  He has been in power since 1994 and, despite huge nationwide protests, has maintained a tight grip into his sixth and current term in office – aided by Putin supplying heavily discounted energy to Belarus.

However, Lukashenko knows his tenure as president could become very vulnerable if he was to direct reluctant Belarusian soldiers to join Russia in the war in Ukraine, which many believe is “none of their business”.

Instead, to appease Putin, Belarus’s leader agreed to host forward-deployed Russian tactical nuclear missiles on Belarusian soil – but it appears very unlikely that Belarusians would tolerate getting drawn into the war directly.

Secondly, Russia does not have unlimited supplies of military capability and must focus on its main effort.  Although the initial objective of the Russian invasion was to defeat Ukraine, the primary (revised) objectives of Putin’s special military operation appear to be securing Crimea, the Donbas, and the land bridge between them, in the east.

Therefore, the focus of Russia’s military campaign this summer has been to secure the remaining area of the Donbas not under Russian control – the area around Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. Most military experts expect this area to be the focus of Russia’s military effort for the remainder of 2024.

Kyiv says Russian assaults in south could come ‘any day’ now

Russian forces could launch ground assaults in Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia region in a matter of days, a Ukrainian military spokesman has said.

The attacks could create a new pressure point for Kyiv’s overstretched defenders who already are on the back foot in the east, although it was unclear if they would involve a single offensive push or separate assaults, the spokesman said. 

“[The assaults] could begin in the near future, we’re not even talking about weeks, we’re expecting it to happen any day,” Vladyslav Voloshyn told Reuters. 

He added that Russian troops heavily outnumber Ukrainian defenders in the area.

Ukraine’s allies must not pre-judge Trump, says France

Kyiv and its allies shouldn’t prejudge how Donald Trump will handle the Ukraine conflict, France’s foreign minister said today.

Vladimir Putin has suggested Trump’s claim he can rapidly end the war in Ukraine “deserves attention”, though the Kremlin today denied reports that the two leaders had spoken on the phone about the conflict (see 9.02 post).

Jean-Noel Barrot said “we absolutely should not prejudge” what a second Trump administration could mean for Ukraine.

“We have to give it time,” he told the Paris Peace Forum. 

He added that any initiatives would have to ensure that Ukraine itself determined the timing and conditions for engaging in a negotiation process. 

In the meantime, he said, Western allies had to give Kyiv all the necessary means to push back invading Russian forces.