The Big Picture
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Published:
Thu, Jan 9, 2025
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- US President-elect Donald Trump stopped slapping import tariffs on Chinese goods in 2019 after China agreed to buy more US energy products, among other things. A similar deal is possible this time around.
- China’s large imports of Iranian crude are likely to come under intense US scrutiny, forcing Beijing to choose between supporting key ally Iran and preserving its vital economic relationship with the US.
- But China is not helpless. Its new energy capabilities make it an unavoidable economic partner for most countries in the fight against climate change, especially in the Global South.
Ten days before Trump’s inauguration, his ability to leverage China’s energy trade is back to the fore as he threatens Beijing with a 60% increase in tariffs. Beijing, busy trying to stimulate its economic growth, may be willing to tweak its energy purchases in ways that please Trump, including by importing more US crude and LNG and less Iranian oil. But China is not without leverage either, thanks to its dominance of the new energy sector.