Latest Developments
The United States recently warned and questioned Iran over intelligence that the regime is working on applications relevant to nuclear weapons, Axios reported on July 17. Tehran reportedly explained the activities and denied the regime was seeking nuclear weapons. Axios reported in June that U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained information during March “that showedIranian scientists were engaging in computer modeling and metallurgical research” relevant to nuclear explosive development.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog, has the right to question Iran and ask for a “special inspection” at relevant Iranian entities to ascertain the absence or presence of undeclared nuclear activities. Nuclear weapons-relevant activities by scientists, even without direction by the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, violate Iran’s commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty not to seek nuclear weapons.
Expert Analysis
“Iran is taking preliminary steps that will help the regime build a warhead, contradicting U.S. intelligence consensus and suggesting the regime is even closer to a deliverable nuclear weapon than previously thought. This is happening while the Islamic Republic is also advancing its comprehensive strategy to bring about Israel’s elimination as a sovereign state. It is time for Washington to return to maximum pressure and put an end to the regime’s malfeasance.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO
“The United States apparently sought and now accepts at face value Iran’s denials about nuclear weaponization work. It usurped the role of the IAEA, which could ask for a special inspection and visit the Iranian entities conducting this work to ensure it stops. Bizarrely, Washington continues to treat Tehran like a trustworthy partner rather than the avowed adversary it is.” — Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program
“How odd that when the news broke of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons activities, the Biden administration downplayed any change in Tehran’s nuclear stance yet secretly warned the regime thereafter. Meanwhile, how much of a warning can this be when accompanied by a $10 billion sanctions waiver extension that will directly augment the regime’s budget?” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
U.S., Israel Weighed New Intelligence
The U.S.-Israel Strategic Consultative Group convened on July 15 in the White House Situation Room to discuss the new Iran intelligence, Axios reported. Officials said that “both countries’ intelligence services do not believe there has been any top-down decision or order by [Iran’s supreme leader] Khamenei to move forward toward the production of a nuclear weapon.” The work taking place is reportedly experimental and occurring at Iranian academic institutions.
Nevertheless, the finding may impact an assertion the U.S. intelligence community has made annually since 2019 that Tehran “is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” In recent years, current and former Iranian officials have openly touted the regime’s ability to construct nuclear weapons.
Iran’s Non-Compliance With Nonproliferation Obligations
Iran has long resisted cooperating with the IAEA to explain the regime’s past nuclear weapons work originally uncovered by non-governmental groups and the media in 2002. The IAEA began investigating new evidence of Iran’s undeclared nuclear weapons work in 2018, yet Tehran has also refused to fully cooperate. Despite the regime’s non-compliance, in 2022 and 2023, the IAEA found Iran in breach of its nonproliferation safeguards obligations to declare relevant nuclear sites, materials, and activities. The IAEA issued determinations that Iran was likely conducting work relevant to nuclear weapons at two sites. Tehran has yet to answer the IAEA’s questions about alleged nuclear weapons activities at two other sites.
“2040: The Year Iran Predicts Israel Will Be Destroyed. Now is the Time to Prepare,” by Mark Dubowitz and Jacob Nagel
“Defying U.S. Law, Biden Administration Fails to Report on Iran’s Nuclear Program,” FDD Flash Brief
“U.S., Israel Investigate Iranian Nuclear Modeling,” FDD Flash Brief
“Washington Fails — Again — to Gauge Iran’s Nuclear Threat,” by Andrea Stricker and Behnam Ben Taleblu
“Former Iranian Official Hints at Nuclear Weapons Program,” FDD Flash Brief
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