Watch Ziemba: Russia & Iran Concentrating on Own Battles

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In the region on on another trip, presumably his last trip now before the official handover takes place. How do you see the events in Syria over the weekend affecting the overall security situation in the region? Yeah, well, I think he’s probably going to be on a plane back back to the region probably in January, if not in December, with the pace things are going. He’s been pretty much living on a plane lately. How are things going? You know, we’ve seen a lot of players try to shore up their interests and, you know, and some good you know, some good noises out of the Syrian, you know, sort of the Syrian those who are trying to formulate the government. But, you know, this is this is really this is going to be really tough. And and I think Donald Trump has said this is not the American’s fight. I think he’s really going to be looking to, you know, allies in the region and sort of stepping back. And he’s waiting in the wings with what to do about about Iran, where the Biden administration is concerned. They’re really they’re trying to stabilize the region, but they’re also trying to give the Ukrainians some advantage on that front. There’s a lot that can happen still in the next two months. And many people are saying the fact that the Assad regime fell so quickly in the last ten days was reflective of the fact that their allies didn’t show up. Neither Iran nor nor Russia. And I do wonder whether the Biden administration is going to capitalize on this moment of weakness for for Russia. There were talks in the last couple of days that they’re weighing potential new sanctions on oil. Do you think those actually will come into fruition? So I think the Biden administration has been trying to use this this space for the last couple of weeks. Right. We saw them transfer some more money to the Ukrainians, some more weapons, what they can do without more congressional approval on the oil side. You know, we saw them cut off Gazprom bank, make gas trade more difficult. What’s interesting now, I think they will do something more. But the fact that it’s leaked in the press, very good reporting from your Bloomberg colleagues on the website side. But the fact that it’s leaked to the press in my mind says that they’re also hoping that traders are cautious and they over comply. So I don’t I think it will tighten markets a bit, but I don’t think they’re going to go for a nuclear option or to try to cut off all Russian energy. What does it tell you about how the US perceives the state of the oil market that they’re even weighing, considering imposing extra sanctions? Right. Because they wouldn’t do that if they anticipated it to cause a massive upward move in the price of oil 100%. And Janet Yellen herself made some comments that there was space to do something more on Russia. Now, her definition of something more is is probably something more targeted and incremental. They see that there is a slack in the oil markets. Of course, that slack sits in this region. It’s in it’s in Abu Dhabi, it’s in Saudi Arabia. And these are countries that are pretty committed to keeping Russia in the OPEC plus fold. So if there’s a real outage, of course, they will act there. They would love to unwind their cuts. Right. We’ve spoken about that. But I do think in this context, the U.S. feels they have a little more space and that they are worried about what kind of deal the Trump administration might strike. So they’re doing what they can. But what’s I think really important is not just cutting off Russian revenues, but really trying to, in their view, help Ukraine make some advantages on the battlefield. And that’s going to be challenging the fact that Russia didn’t show up in Syria, the fact that Iran was afraid about Israeli airstrikes. I think that reflects those countries focusing on their own core interests rather than than that on Syria. It is, you know, remarkable that in this part of the world, it’s almost that there’s a two speed Middle East, there’s the Middle Eastern conflict, and then there’s the GCC region. You and I were both at Abu Dhabi Finance Week earlier this week, and I sense so much excitement about opportunities here. People are really excited about the non oil sector growth in that space. What were some of your takeaways? Yeah, so in the context of everything that’s happening geopolitically, sure. I mean, look, I think in the context of everything in the region, the UAE is really still a place where people from the region come both to trade and to invest and then to reinvest somewhere else. Right. What struck me about everything going on at Abu Dhabi Finance Week was the way in which Abu Dhabi was positioning itself as a place to for companies from the region, from Africa and fintech entities from around the world were coming and setting up there and then doing operations elsewhere. And the UAE also has been signing all these comprehensive economic partnership agreements are up to over 20 countries. Now, the UAE is really, I think, trying to think of it self as a place where, you know, it uses its own capital, but it also pulls in some other capital. That’s maybe happening a little less so, but that is trying to also be a place where there are some value add to trade, not just a re-export hub. And that, I think, is unique at a time when more barriers are coming up. And that does mean, though, that there are going to be some some challenges and compliance issues ahead. But there’s a big vision and, you know, interesting times and important for us as economists to see and assess where that where the risks are. Yeah. Yeah. No, no, it’s fascinating. I definitely got that sense as well and their own motto as the capital of capital. But of course, that’s the one they designed for themselves. It is, but I think it’s one of those very slogans that, you know, holds hold some water. We’ll see what happens to the Falcon economy, how much it can grow, but see good times.