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International attention remained fixed on the Middle East in December when the regime of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad capitulated to rebel forces. The week after Assad fled Damascus, Paraguayan President Santiago Peña visited Israel, which remains engaged in conflict directly and via proxy with Hezbollah and Iran, both close allies of Assad’s now-ousted regime. How have various Latin American leaders responded to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, as well as Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah? How might Assad’s defeat lead Iran and Hezbollah to re-evaluate their relationships with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro? And more broadly, what role are Latin American countries playing in shaping the international community’s response to political and military events in the Middle East?
Michael Shifter, senior fellow and former president of the Inter-American Dialogue: “Recent developments in the Middle East—particularly the dramatic collapse of the Assad regime in Syria—are reshaping global geopolitics with remarkable speed. For Latin America, the most significant consequence of Assad’s fall—along with Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon—is the heavy blow suffered by Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. For Russia, too, which has long backed Assad’s brutal rule, Syria’s implosion marks a setback. As a result, Iran’s and Hezbollah’s ability to support regimes like Venezuela or engage in criminal activities across the region—especially the tri-border area of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay—could be somewhat diminished. While the fall of Assad highlights the unpredictable nature of dictatorships, it is important to remain cautious about drawing parallels with Venezuela. The most crucial factor in Syria’s collapse was the relentless offensive of a well-organized rebel army–something that is notably absent in Venezuela. Venezuela’s opposition lacks the capacity to challenge Nicolás Maduro in the same way. Russia, despite its weakened position due to the Assad loss and its prolonged entanglement in Ukraine, will continue to support Maduro politically and militarily. More broadly, while most Latin American leaders have sharply condemned Israel over its actions in Gaza, there are some notable exceptions, including Argentine President Javier Milei and Paraguayan President Santiago Peña. Peña recently went to Israel to announce his decision to move Paraguay’s embassy back to Jerusalem. Yet, despite various official statements and positioning, Latin America’s influence on Middle Eastern dynamics remains marginal.”
Patricia Garip, Chile-based analyst: “The Syrian regime’s swift demise has drawn caution in Latin American capitals, papering over awkward remnants of leftist affinity with deposed dictator Bashar al-Assad. In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva once honored him, while in Chile, President Gabriel Boric’s communist allies have condemned the ‘terrorist’ takeover of Damascus. Of more consequence are the geopolitical implications for Venezuela, where opponents of another entrenched regime feel emboldened. Despite weak parallels with Syria, a country prone to sectarianism and foreign military interference, Venezuelan autocrat Nicolás Maduro relies on the same patrons, Russia and Iran, that his Syrian counterpart did. Russia equips Venezuela’s military. Iran shores up its oil industry. Moscow and Tehran turned out to be fair-weather friends for Damascus, despite the costs of abandoning their client. Russia now risks losing military bases, while Iran’s bridge to its diminished Lebanese proxy is severed. In Caracas, the pair have far shallower interests. So despite Maduro’s efforts to showcase ties to Western adversaries and cozy up to the BRICS countries, Assad’s ouster suggests that Maduro can’t count on them, except perhaps for tickets to exile. Coupled with evidence of his overwhelming loss in the July elections, this reality has weakened Maduro’s negotiating hand just as Donald Trump is returning to the White House, fixated on curbing migration that has become synonymous with Venezuela. In the longer term, Latin America could play a constructive role in Syria’s recovery by harnessing its experience with democratic transitions and the cultural links of its sizable communities with Levantine roots.”
Henry Ziemer, associate fellow for the Americas at the Center for Strategic & International Studies: “Assad’s fall has surely put the Western Hemisphere’s dictators on notice. Authoritarian regimes tend to appear invincible right until the moment their façade cracks, often in unpredictable ways. Indeed, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela all face structural challenges which could, even if they appear unlikely at present, bring the regimes in those countries to the point of crisis. The proximate consequence of the events in Syria is therefore likely to be a retrenchment by Iran of its support for international proxies and allies. However, over the medium and long term, it is likely that authoritarian governments in Latin America and beyond will seek to reinforce their alliances as an assurance against future upheavals. Of particular interest is the question of Hezbollah in the region. While much dispute persists as to the full extent of the group’s operations, it is possible that Hezbollah’s decimation at the hands of Israel will lead to its Latin American cells adopting a more decentralized approach and further integrating with regional criminal organizations. Especially in Venezuela, where the group has reportedly established close links to the criminalized regime of Nicolás Maduro, the disintegration of Hezbollah’s core leadership in Lebanon will spur closer integration between local detachments and Venezuelan transnational criminal groups. Outside Caracas, Managua and Havana, however, few governments in Latin America are likely to mourn Assad’s departure. Fewer still are likely to want to involve themselves in the tumult of Middle East politics. To the extent we can expect to see reactions, they will likely take the form of symbolic gestures like President Peña’s visit.”
Emili J. Blasco, director of the Center for Global Affairs and Strategic Studies at the University of Navarra in Spain: “Like most of the international community, Latin American governments have cautiously welcomed the fall of Assad in Syria, generally hailing the end of an oppressive regime but warning of the risk of the establishment of an extremist Islamic government. Assad’s traditional partners in the region, Venezuela and Cuba, conveyed their support to the Syrian president in the days before his departure from the country and later condemned the foreign alliances they consider responsible for the change of regime. President Petro of Colombia has also expressed discomfort with what he sees as a process of ‘rightward shift’ in the Middle East. Brazil, the largest Latin American country governed by the left, has shown itself more interested in trying to contribute to a peaceful development that respects the aspirations of the Syrians, taking care to maintain the role of mediator country that Lula advocates. If Brazil could play that role, it would be the only Latin American nation with the possibility of contributing to shaping the situation in the Middle East. At a time when it is losing influence in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, Iran will value its relationship with Maduro even more and could strengthen its ties with other Latin American partners, such as Cuba and Bolivia; the Ayatollah’s regime has always acted in this way when it has come under international pressure. For Hezbollah, the financing it obtains from drug trafficking in the region and from other illicit businesses in the tri-border area is especially important.”
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