The term of the current High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell began in December 2019 and is set to conclude before the end of 2024. His successor will likely continue to navigate the EU’s complex relationships with major powers like the United States, China and Russia with a strong focus on security, economic competition and digital diplomacy. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, tensions with Russia, and the EU’s stance on China are expected to remain central to EU foreign policy. Moreover, there could be an increased emphasis on the EU’s role in the Global South, especially as the bloc seeks to position itself as a key partner in these regions.
When Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s former prime minister, becomes the next EU foreign policy chief pending confirmation, it will likely signal a continuation and possibly an intensification of the EU’s current foreign policy direction, particularly regarding Russia and Eastern Europe. Specific priorities for the EU international agenda might continue to be Ukraine, Russia and China.
For instance, a more assertive foreign policy stance could emerge, particularly in relation to the EU’s strategic autonomy and its role in global governance. After considering the post of NATO secretary-general (Mark Rutte eventually won the job on June 26, 2024), Kallas led an assiduous campaign, backed by the whole of Central and Eastern Europe, to become the future foreign policy leader in Brussels. On June 27, 2024, Kallas was nominated to become the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. During a European Council summit in Brussels, the Estonian Reform Party leader received broad backing from EU heads of state or governments to take on this highly influential EU position. Before being definitely appointed for a five-year term, Kallas will need approval from the European Parliament following hearings to be held later in 2024. Kallas would become the fifth EU representative for foreign affairs since the position was introduced in 1999. She could be the first high representative coming from post-communist Europe and the first Balt to reach the upper echelons of EU foreign policy decision-making.
She was a member of the European Parliament from 2014 to 2018. Her father, Siim Kallas, also was a prime minister of Estonia, and he became his country’s first European commissioner for 10 years in 2004 when Estonia joined the EU. Her family background is also a strong factor explaining her deep distrust of Russia. In June 2024, at a conference for peace in Ukraine organized by Switzerland, she said, “Many countries have suffered from colonialism, including my country, which was part of Russia, a colonial state, for almost half a century until 1990… At that time, there were many discussions about peace, but it was peace on Russian terms with the oppression of all that was Estonian.”
The first consequence of Kallas’ appointment could be an even firmer stance on Russia. Indeed, Kallas has been one of the EU’s most vocal critics of Russia, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine. Under her leadership, the EU could maintain or even strengthen its hardline stance against Russian military intervention, emphasizing sanctions and support for Ukraine. This might also include bolstering EU defense and cybersecurity efforts, fields in which Estonia has been particularly active.
The second priority could be to strengthen ties with NATO. Kallas is a strong supporter of NATO, and her appointment could lead to closer EU-NATO cooperation, especially in light of ongoing security challenges in Europe. This might include more integrated defense strategies and increased military support for EU member states bordering Russia.
The third direction could be a renewed focus on digitalization and cybersecurity. Estonia is a leader in digital governance and cybersecurity, and Kallas could push the EU to adopt more robust digital diplomacy and cybersecurity measures. This could involve enhancing the EU’s capabilities to counter cyber threats and disinformation, fields in which Russia has been particularly active.
It is also likely that the future high representative will be an advocate for Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. As a former prime minister of Estonia, Kallas has always been a passionate defender of the interests of Eastern European and Baltic states within the EU. This might include increased attention to energy security, particularly in reducing dependency on Russian energy, and greater investment in regional infrastructure projects.
She will also insist on promoting EU values. She has consistently emphasized the importance of democracy, the rule of law and human rights at a time of rising far-right political parties inside the EU. Her appointment could see a stronger EU emphasis on these values in its foreign policy, including a more active stance on the international scene and support for democratic movements worldwide. Nevertheless, given her focus on Russia, she will need to think about other foreign policy files and propose a new vision in other areas, such as dealing with Iran, China, and the Middle East.
In summary, Kallas’ leadership could reinforce the EU’s existing foreign policy priorities while placing a stronger emphasis on cybersecurity, defense, and Eastern European interests. Her approach will likely continue to challenge Russian influence while promoting EU unity and resilience in the face of external threats.
