With a weakened Hezbollah, does Israel have an opportunity for peace with Lebanon? – opinion

In May 2000, when Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon, I was serving as an IDF operational liaison officer, working with the United Nations peacekeeping forces in Lebanon and the Golan Heights.

I saw firsthand the complexities of the border – an uneasy line separating two nations, tied by history but divided by enmity.

Israel’s withdrawal felt like a necessary end to an unwinnable entanglement. But it also left behind a vacuum quickly filled by Hezbollah, which entrenched itself as a military and political force, claiming victory over Israel and tying Lebanon’s fate to the ambitions of Iran and Syria.

Fast forward to today, and amid the emerging and critical Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal, Lebanon represents a vital opportunity not yet being widely discussed. In the aftermath of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent northern front with Hezbollah, we must examine how to create a new reality on all fronts. As the saying goes, we must never let a good crisis – or in this case, a terrible one – go to waste.

Following October 7, Israel’s northern border once again became a war zone as Hezbollah launched relentless rocket attacks, forcing over 200,000 Israelis to flee their homes and devastating northern communities. Israel’s response targeted Hezbollah’s infrastructure, leadership, and supply lines, significantly weakening the group.

With Hezbollah accepting a ceasefire after debilitating losses, an unprecedented opportunity now presents itself for both Israel and Lebanon.

Hezbollah has been isolated, its leadership decimated, and its grip over Lebanon significantly weakened. Hassan Nasrallah, its decades-long leader, is dead. Just last week, Lebanon elected army commander Joseph Aoun as president, ending a more than two-year political deadlock and further weakening Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, Syria, once a key ally to Hezbollah, has seen Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapse into fragmented rebel forces focused on rebuilding. Iran, Hezbollah’s primary benefactor, faces mounting internal turmoil, protests, and instability, while its regional proxies crumble.

For Lebanon, this moment represents a crossroads. The weakening of Hezbollah offers the chance to reclaim sovereignty and break free from decades of external manipulation. Joining the Abraham Accords could offer Lebanon the pathway to economic revival and stability.

The opportunity echoes the sentiment of former prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who once said, “You don’t make peace with friends. You make peace with very unsavory enemies.” Lebanon could follow this pragmatic wisdom to forge a new future.

Reshaping of the Middle East

THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS have already reshaped the Middle East. Expanding them to include Lebanon is the logical next step. Notably, the US has already shown commitment to fostering Lebanese stability, such as appointing Massad Boulos, a Lebanese American with deep regional ties, to key advisory roles. 

With bipartisan support, American leadership can leverage this unique alignment of circumstances to accelerate peace talks.

The potential benefits for Lebanon are transformative. Billions in aid and investment from the United States, France, and Gulf nations, combined with potential partnerships with Israel, could unlock growth and jobs, revitalizing industries like tourism, agriculture, technology, and energy. 

Weakening Hezbollah would allow Lebanon to reclaim its sovereignty, enabling its government to operate free from the shadow of terrorist militias and external actors.

For Israel, peace with Lebanon offers both strategic and economic advantages. Securing the northern border would neutralize a decades-long threat, reduce Iran’s influence, and fulfill Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vision of “total victory” – not solely through military strength but through diplomacy and regional stability. Expanding the Abraham Accords would also bolster Israel’s role as a regional leader in innovation and technology.

However, challenges remain. Hezbollah’s remnants, though weakened, could act as spoilers, and entrenched anti-Israel sentiments within Lebanon may resist normalization. On Israel’s side, skepticism about peace with a long-standing adversary could complicate public and political support.

The events of October 7 underscored that lasting peace and true security demand more than walls and military strength – they require bold steps and bridge-building. The deal to release the hostages is a step toward creating that reality. 

Israel and Lebanon now also face a rare chance to rewrite history. This is an opportunity to realize Rabin’s vision and prove that peace, even with an enemy, is possible. By seizing this moment, they can together chart a new future for the region.

The writer is the CEO of AION Labs.